中国民众普遍信任的动态变迁基于年龄-时期-世代效应的分析

From the onset of the Chinese Revolution in the early 20th century, through the establishment of the Peoples Republic of China, to the current drive towards comprehensive development of a moderately prosperous society guided by Chinese-style modernization, China has witnessed profound transformations across political, economic, social, and cultural domains. These changes have significantly altered the micro-level values and social mentality of the Chinese people, disrupting traditional social bonds and trust networks, and leading to shifts in widespread public trust. A thorough analysis of the historical evolution and logic behind these shifts in general trust among the Chinese populace is crucial for advancing the modernization of social governance in China and solidifying the societal mindset foundation necessary for Chinese-style modernization.? ? ?To accurately describe these trends, this study utilizes large-scale representative sample data (N=95283) from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) conducted between 2003 and 2021 by Renmin University of China. Employing a stratified age-period-cohort (HAPC) model, it analyzes the changing trends of general trust among Chinese individuals across three temporal dimensions: age, period, and birth cohort, while also providing preliminary explanations for group differences.? ? ? ?Specifically, the study arrives at seven main conclusions: (1) General trust exhibits a "U-shaped" curve with age, with middle-aged individuals showing lower levels of trust than both younger and older people. (2) Period effects generally show an upward trend, with two key observations: a brief rapid decline in general trust levels between 2003 and 2005, followed by a stable phase between 2010 and 2015, before a noticeable rise in 2017. (3) The generational effect on general trust follows an inverted "U-shaped" trend, gradually increasing from the 1925 cohort, turning positive by the 1940 cohort, reaching a plateau between the 1945 and 1970 generations, and then sharply declining to the lowest point with the 1990 cohort. (4) Rural residents consistently exhibit higher levels of general trust across most age groups, periods, and generations compared to urban residents, though this difference is narrowing over time. (5) Individuals with higher education levels show higher levels of general trust and greater fluctuations across different age groups. (6) Strong kinship ties and large income disparities have a significant negative impact on the change in general trust, while variables such as the marketization coefficient, population mobility rate, the number of social organizations, average years of education, and the government trust index have a positive impact on the change in general trust.? ? ?By utilizing a consistent dataset over a long period, this study overcomes the inaccuracies in conclusions caused by insufficient data or inconsistent measurements in previous research, providing a comprehensive view of the trends and transformations in general trust among the Chinese population over nearly two decades. Especially in examining the effects of generation and age on general trust, this research advances beyond simplistic analyses, enhancing the scientific rigor and cautious interpretation of its conclusions. It integrates the characteristics of changing general trust with the social transformation and historical development context, revealing the diachronic changes in trust among different generations of Chinese people through an analysis of various stages of societal development and trust models over the past century. This offers a novel theoretical perspective for understanding the trends in trust changes among the Chinese populace. Moreover, the study introduces the HAPC model, an improvement over the traditional APC model, allowing for a more accurate separation of the independent effects of age, period, and cohort, with robustness checks through IE methods and CGLM methods further affirming the reliability of the research findings.