计及源侧碳计量不确定性的碳潮流追踪
Carbon Flow Tracking Considering the Uncertainty in Source-side Carbon Metering
姜怡珊 1马大卫 2刘超 3孔明 2苗博 3李泽瑞 4吕文君5
作者信息
- 1. 中国科学技术大学自动化系，安徽省 合肥市 230026
- 2. 国网安徽省电力有限公司电力科学研究院，安徽省 合肥市 230601
- 3. 中国电力科学研究院有限公司，北京市 海淀区 100192
- 4. 合肥综合性国家科学中心人工智能研究院，安徽省 合肥市 230088
- 5. 智能低碳信息技术与装备安徽省重点实验室，中国科学技术大学，安徽省 合肥市 230027
- 折叠
摘要
随着＂双碳＂目标的提出，电力系统的碳排放分析已成为电力行业低碳转型的重要研究方向。现有方法未考虑源侧碳计量的不确定性，在算法层面将发电机组碳排放强度按确定性变量的处理，因此无法评估后续电力系统节点碳潮流的不确定性。本文提出一种计及源侧碳计量不确定性的碳潮流追踪方法，通过将发电机组碳排放强度视为随机性变量并建模为 Alpha 稳定分布，基于潮流分布矩阵理论建立发电侧到下游节点的线性映射关系。利用 Alpha 稳定分布的线性组合性质，快速推导各节点碳流率分布的 Alpha 稳定分布参数。该方法量化了各节点碳流率的随机波动范围，避免了确定性假设导致的偏差累积和决策风险。本文通过 2 机 4 节点和 6 机 30 节点进行系统验证，理论推导结果与蒙特卡洛仿真结果高度一致。Abstract
Following the establishment of the "dual-carbon" targets, the carbon emission analysis of power systems has emerged as a key research direction for the low-carbon transition of the power industry. Existing methods overlook the uncertainty in source-side carbon metering, treating the carbon emission intensity of generation units as deterministic variables at the algorithmic level. Consequently, they are unable to assess the uncertainty of carbon flow at downstream power system nodes. To tackle this problem, we propose a carbon flow tracking method that accounts for the uncertainty in source-side carbon metering. This method treats the carbon emission intensity of generation units as stochastic variables modeled by Alpha-stable distributions. Based on the power flow distribution matrix theory, a linear mapping relationship from the generation side to downstream nodes is established. By leveraging the linear combination property of Alpha-stable distributions, the parameters of the resulting Alpha-stable distribution for the carbon flow rate at each node can be efficiently derived. This method quantifies the stochastic fluctuation ranges of carbon flow rates at each node, avoiding systematic bias accumulation and decision-making risks caused by deterministic assumptions. Validated on 2-generator 4-node and 6-generator 30-node systems, the results from the theoretical derivation show high agreement with those from Monte Carlo simulations. 关键词
源侧碳计量不确定性/Alpha 稳定分布/潮流分布矩阵/蒙特卡洛仿真Key words
Uncertainty of Source-Side Carbon Measurement/Alpha-Stable Distribution/Power Flow Distribution Matrix/Monte Carlo Simulation引用本文复制引用
姜怡珊,马大卫,刘超,孔明,苗博,李泽瑞,吕文君.计及源侧碳计量不确定性的碳潮流追踪[EB/OL].(2025-11-03)[2025-12-07].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202511.00024.学科分类
环境保护宣传、环境保护教育/发电、发电厂/电工技术概论/数学/计算技术、计算机技术
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