应急医疗物资轮换调配系统动力学仿真研究

he dynamic rotation of medical material inventory is an important guarantee for alleviating public health emergencies. Referring to the grading standards of public health emergencies, the public health emergencies are divided into four grades, and three subsystems of disease transmission, material allocation and material inventory rotation are designed. Using the method of system dynamics, a dynamic collaborative model of epidemic prevention and control and emergency medical material rotation was established. On this basis, the causal relationship between the key factors in the system is analyzed, and the system dynamics simulation flow chart of medical material rotation decision in public health emergencies is designed. The simulation results show that: (1) The rotation demand of medical supplies is positively correlated with the infection rate and per capita demand. The higher the level of events, the higher the peak demand, and the greater the demand for rotation. (2) The rotation rate of medical material inventory is greatly affected by the delay of material allocation and transportation. When the transportation delay time increases, the arrival rate of materials decreases, and the time to achieve material supply and inventory stability is also later. (3) The material deterioration rate affects the demand for medical material rotation. The higher the deterioration rate of materials, the more medical materials need to be rotated, and the earlier the date of material demand, thus affecting the disaster demand and daily rotation demand.