人工智能时代宏观经济复杂系统构建
onstruction of Macroeconomic Complex Systems in the Era of Artificial Intelligence
人工智能迅速发展的时代,为研究微观经济体的行为提供了更为丰富的数据基础,还可以有效地模拟和分析复杂的宏观经济系统。这些系统通常由多种类的微观经济体组成,包括政府、居民、企业、金融机构和国际经济体等。宏观经济系统的模拟过程中的一个核心挑战是如何有效整合不同经济体的行为和预期,这些因素在市场上产生了复杂的互动。这些微观经济体在信息传导的作用下,由于对未来经济形势及资源配置的不同预期,形成了各自的交易行为,进而影响到整体市场的动态变化。本文继承了随机一般均衡理论的框架,结合微观经济学居民效用最大化和企业利润最大化等微观机理,并运用数字李生技术,探索了多类别微观经济体在宏观经济系统中相互作用的机制。首先构建了多类别智能微元模型;其次结合市场交易机制,模拟价格波动;从而指引企业和居民的预期形成和消费、就业、投资、生产等决策,涌现宏观经济现象。最后对系统进行了动态演绎、模型验证以及政策效应分析。不仅为理解经济运行过程中微观行为的复杂性提供了新的视角,同时也为未来政策制定提供了理论支撑与实践参考。本系统是国民核算体系在人工智能时代的替代,其不仅是对经济现状的描述,更是经济体未来的演绎。其优势主要体现在:1.在大数据时代,数据可以不已总量和平均来体现,可以结构化的呈现;2.由于具备人工智能和系统博弈观,各智能微元通过市场中的博弈和预期,演绎由微观智能体决策“涌现”出结构化的宏观经济的现象。
In the era of rapid development of artificial intelligence, a richer data foundation is provided for studying the behaviors of microeconomic entities, and it also enables effective simulation and analysis of complex macroeconomic systems. These systems typically consist of various types of microeconomic entities, including governments, residents, enterprises, financial institutions, and international economies. A core challenge during the simulation process of macroeconomic systems is how to effectively integrate the behaviors and expectations of different economic entities, as these factors generate complex interactions in the market. Due to the role of information transmission, these microeconomic entities, influenced by differing expectations regarding future economic conditions and resource allocation, develop their own trading behaviors, which in turn affect the dynamic changes of the overall market.The construction of an AI macro model is imperative. Firstly, this article introduces the framework, connections, and operational processes of a smart micro-entity macroeconomic system. By constructing a smart micro-entity model to simulate the behavioral logic of various micro-level entities, it aligns the microeconomic logic with reality. Then, utilizing the self-adaptive decisions of these smart micro-entities within the macro framework reveals the operating laws of macroeconomics. Finally, the system undergoes dynamic evolution, model validation, and policy effect analysis.
吴碧霞、葛建军、欧阳汉
经济学经济计划、经济管理信息产业经济
宏观经济系统智能微元模型经济决策市场交易政策效应
Macroeconomic systemIntelligent agent based modelEconomic decision-makingMarket transactionsPolicy effects
吴碧霞,葛建军,欧阳汉.人工智能时代宏观经济复杂系统构建[EB/OL].(2024-11-01)[2025-08-23].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202411.00008.点此复制
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