气候变化背景下白皮松在中国潜在适宜分布预测
研究旨在预测白皮松潜在适生区分布及气候变化对其的影响，明确其未来适宜的分布范围，为白皮松保护和其在生态工程建设中的应用提供参考。基于白皮松83个野生分布点及气候因子数据，利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件，模拟白皮松当前和未来3种（2080—2100年，低温室气体排放情景、中温室气体排放情景和高温室气体排放情景）气候变化情景（SSP126、SSP370、SSP585）下的潜在适生区分布。MaxEnt模型模拟结果AUC（受试者工作特征曲线下面积值）值均＞0.973，预测结果精度较高。当前气候条件下，白皮松的潜在适生区主要分布在陕西省、山西省南部、甘肃省东南部、河南省和湖北省西北部等地，总面积约74.5×104 km2，未来气候变化背景下，核心适生区面积均有不同程度的缩减，温度为白皮松潜在适生区分布的主限制因子；中、低温室气体排放情景下，白皮松潜在适生区分布的限制因子仍以温度为主；高温室气体排放情景下，全球温度升高加快，降雨量成为影响白皮松适生区分布的主要限制因子，白皮松适生区质心向东偏移，尤其在温室气体高排放浓度下更敏感，迁移距离更远。本文结合白皮松当前和未来潜在适生区的变化，提出了对白皮松保护的建议，且对利用白皮松进行生态工程建设提供参考价值。
he study aims to predict the distribution of potential suitable area and the impact of climate change, and to clarify the appropriate distribution range in the future, so as to provide reference for the protection of Pinus bungeana and its utilization in ecological engineering construction. Based on the 83 wild distribution sites of P. bungeana and climate factor data, MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to simulate the potential suitable zone distribution of P. bungeana under present and 3 climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) (2080-2100, low-level, medium-to-level, and high greenhouse gases emission scenarios) MaxEnt model simulation results of AUC (area value under the subject operating characteristic curve) were greater than 0.973, and the prediction results were highly accurate. Under the present climate conditions, the potential suitable areas of P. bungeana are mainly distributed in Shaanxi Province, southern Shanxi Province, southeastern Gansu Province, northwestern Henan Province, and northwestern Hubei Province, with a total area of about 74.5 104 km2, under the background of future climate change, the area of core suitable areas will be reduced to different degrees, and the temperature are the main limiting factor for the distribution of potential growth zones of P. bungeana. Under the low and medium greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the limiting factor for the potential growth zones distribution of P. bungeana is still dominated by temperature. Under the scenario of high greenhouse gas emission, the global temperature increases faster, and rainfall becomes the main limiting factor affecting the distribution of P. bungeana suitable area. The centroid of the suitable area of P. bungeana shifts eastward, especially more sensitive under the high emission concentration of greenhouse gases, and the migration distance is farther. This paper proposes the protection of P. bungeana, and the results provide reference value for ecological engineering construction using P. bungeana.
樊玉科、任菊、王润龙、周栋栋、潘自凯、周晓雷(1）、张晓玮
环境科学理论自然地理学环境科学技术现状
ollege of ForestryGansu Agricultural UniversityLanzhou 730070hinaNortheast forestry UniversityHaerbin 150040hina
maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelPinus bungeanaclimate changepotential distribution areaChina
樊玉科,任菊,王润龙,周栋栋,潘自凯,周晓雷(1）,张晓玮.气候变化背景下白皮松在中国潜在适宜分布预测[EB/OL].(2024-11-12)[2025-08-02].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202411.00120.点此复制
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