不同气候情景下中国沙棘的地理分布及动态变化预测

bstract: Explore the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis and simulate its potential suitable distribution areas, to provide a theoretical basis for the cultivation, conservation, and development of its wild resources. Methods: The working characteristic curve and the area under the curve of the subject were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model. The dominant environmental factors were screened by comprehensive contribution rate and the knife cutting method and their suitable range were determined; The MaxEnt model was applied to simulate and predict the suitable (growth) areas and their dynamic changes under current and future climatic conditions. Results: (1) The model accuracy was high (AUC = 0.953), which can effectively simulate the potential distribution of H. rhamnoides subsp.sinensis.(2) Annual precipitation (325650 mm),altitude (12003850 m), the average temperature during the coldest season (7.25C1.25), and precipitation in the driest month (14 mm) were the leading environmental factors affecting its distribution (3) It was mainly concentrated in Gansu, Qinghai, Sichuan, Xizang, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia with sporadic occurrences in Yunnan and Guizhou; future climate change will not only force its expansion to the northwest high latitude, high-altitude area, and the Yunnan-Guizhou plateau but also remarkably shrunk the southeast low latitude and low altitude distribution area; the overall distribution area increased. Conclusion: Altitude and hydrothermal conditions were the leading factors affecting the distribution of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis. To cope with future climate change, the focus of its industry should be shifted to the northwest, middle, and high-altitude areas, and the reasonable development and utilization of its resources should be carried out to achieve sustainable development.