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近 20 a 塔里木河流域山区 NDSI 对气候变化的响应

中文摘要英文摘要

NDS(I 归一化差异积雪指数)是一种评估地表积雪覆盖程度的指数,对研究山区积雪变化有重要作用。本 研究基于 2001—2022 年遥感数据和再分析数据,采用趋势分析法、多元线性回归法等,分析了近 20 a 来塔里木河流 域山区 NDSI 时空变化及其归因。结果表明:塔里木河流域山区 2001—2022 年 NDSI 均呈下降趋势,具有显著的空 间异质性。北部和西部山区,NDSI 值的季节变化相同,NDSI 平均值从高到低为:冬季>春季>秋季>夏季,而南部山 区的 NDSI 平均值夏季高于秋季。塔里木河流域山区年均实际蒸散发均呈上升趋势。北部山区的降水呈略微下降 的趋势,而西部和南部山区表现为上升趋势。所有山区的饱和水汽压差均呈上升趋势。下行地表太阳辐射呈下降 趋势。北部和西部山区的最低气温呈上升趋势,南部山区略呈下降趋势,而所有区域最高气温均呈上升趋势。众 多变量中,气温和饱和水汽压对 NDSI 的影响较大。本研究可为政策决策提供科学依据。

NDSI is used to evaluate the degree of surface snow cover, which plays a vital role in exploring snow cover changes in mountainous areas. In this study, remote sensing data and reanalysis data from 2001 to 2022, trend analysis, and multiple linear regression were used to analyze the spatiotemporal changes and attribution of NDSI in the mountainous areas of the Tarim River Basin over the past 20 years. Results indicated a downward trend of NDSI in the mountainous areas of the Tarim River Basin from 2001 to 2022, with significant spatial het- erogeneity. The seasonal variation of NDSI was similar in the northern and western mountainous areas, with the average NDSI ranking from high to low in winter>spring>autumn>summer. However, the average NDSI in the southern mountainous areas was higher in summer than in autumn. The average annual actual evapotranspiration in the mountainous areas of the Tarim River Basin showed an increasing trend. Precipitation in the northern mountainous areas exhibited a slight downward trend, whereas that in the western and southern mountainous ar- eas showed an upward trend. The difference in saturated water vapor pressure showed an upward trend in all mountainous areas. The downward surface solar radiation exhibited a decreasing trend. The minimum tempera- ture in the northern and western mountainous areas showed an increasing trend, whereas that in the southern mountainous areas showed a slightly decreasing trend. The maximum temperature in all regions exhibited an up- ward trend. Among these variables, temperature and saturated water vapor pressure exerted a significant impact on NDSI. This study can provide a scientific basis for policy decision-making.

张 音、孙从建、刘 庚、钞锦龙、耿甜伟

10.12074/202411.00123

自然地理学环境科学理论大气科学(气象学)

School of Geographical ScienceTaiyuan Normal UniversityJinzhong 030619ShanxiChinaShanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Security in Fenhe River ValleyTaiyuan Normal UniversityJinzhong 030619ShanxiChinaShanxi Normal UniversityTaiyuan 030031ShanxiChina

arim River Basinsnow coverclimate changeNDSImultiple linear regression

张 音,孙从建,刘 庚,钞锦龙,耿甜伟.近 20 a 塔里木河流域山区 NDSI 对气候变化的响应[EB/OL].(2024-11-12)[2025-08-18].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202411.00123.点此复制

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