外生冲击在中国生产网络中的传导效应研究

From the perspective of production network, this paper discusses how the industrial structure propagate exogenous shocks, which in turn causes macroeconomic fluctuations. Starting with a Cobb-Douglas economy, we investigate the propagation mechanisms of supply-side and demand-side shocks respectively. Then, under more general conditions, it is proved that the propagation effect of the production network will not disappear with the subdivision of the industry, and the method of measuring the propagation effect is improved. The improved measurement method not only broadens the applicability of the original method, but also makes the measurement results more accurate. Using all non-competitive input-output tables since Chinas accession to the WTO, this paper examines the topology of Chinas production network, the probability distribution of weighted degrees, and the propagation effect on shocks. Key industries that propagate shocks are also identified. The research finds that Chinas production network has small-world properties. Unlike developed countries such as the United States, the weighted degree of Chinas production network follows an exponential distribution rather than a power-law distribution. The average value of the propagation effect of Chinas production network on shocks is 0.376, of which about 30% of the effect comes from the weight structure of the network. The key industries that propagation shocks are as follows: steel, electricity, heat production and supply, wholesale and retail, automobile manufacturing and construction. According to the characteristics of Chinas industrial structure, supply-side shocks may cause greater economic losses than demand-side shocks, especially the supply-side shocks in the mining industry. In addition, the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure will help reduce the propagation effect of the production network, thereby reducing the systemic risks of the economy.