中国生育恐惧情绪与出生率之间的关系——基于2010-2022年微博面板数据分析
The Relationship Between Fertility Fear and Birth Rates in China: A Panel Data Analysis of Weibo from 2010 to 2022
本研究通过构建生育恐惧词典，利用2010至2022年间的新浪微博数据，分析了中国各省市的生育恐惧水平及其对出生率的影响。研究结果表明，生育恐惧情绪显著负向预测次年出生率，生育恐惧的增加显著降低生育行为。此外，人均可支配收入和个体主义文化倾向对生育恐惧有正向影响，通过加剧生育恐惧进一步影响出生率。本研究为理解生育恐惧对生育行为的影响提供了新的实证依据，并为制定人口政策提出了社会心理层面的理论支持，
信息传播、知识传播科学、科学研究教育
生育恐惧出生率社交媒体面板数据分析
朱廷劭,陆家偲.中国生育恐惧情绪与出生率之间的关系——基于2010-2022年微博面板数据分析[EB/OL].(2024-10-29)[2025-09-22].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202410.00159.点此复制
This study constructs a fertility fear dictionary and analyzes the fertility fear levels across various provinces in China using Sina Weibo data from 2010 to 2022. The findings reveal that increased fertility fear significantly and negatively predicts birth rates in the following year, with heightened fertility fear leading to reduced reproductive behavior. Additionally, both per capita disposable income and individualistic cultural tendencies positively influence fertility fear, further affecting birth rates. This research provides new empirical evidence on the impact of fertility fear on reproductive behavior and offers socio-psychological insights for shaping population policies.
Fertility fearBirth rateSocial mediaPanel data analysis
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