新能源汽车供应链仿真网络与级联失效研究
Research on Simulation Network and Cascade Failure of New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain
刘雯月 1张笑笑 2杨康3
作者信息
- 1. 武汉科技大学管理学院，武汉 430065
- 2. 安徽建筑大学?建筑与规划学院，合肥?230601
- 3. 合肥工业大学管理学院，合肥 230009
- 折叠
摘要
基于新能源汽车供应链网络多层级、供需复杂及动态拓扑的特点，首先建立了能够高度模拟真实结构与风险传播机制的供应链虚拟网络，为降低级联失效风险并提升网络鲁棒性提供新思路。综合节点度值、竞争优势系数等要素提出了多级供应链虚拟网络生成算法，在网络演化过程中使用优先连接及优先退出机制模拟企业的进入与退出，并通过级联失效算法和三种风险转移策略来揭示风险传播的微观机理。结果表明，当核心节点失效时，风险易于迅速传递并引发多节点级联失效；剩余容量分配策略更有助于提升供应链网络的抗冲击能力；所构建的虚拟网络在风险传播范围与冲击强度等指标上与真实网络高度相似，能够准确反映节点失效在网络中的级联扩散过程。本文的研究为新能源汽车供应链网络的结构优化与协同防控提供了具有实用价值的新途径。
Abstract
Based on the multi-level, complex supply and demand and dynamic topology characteristics of the new energy vehicle supply chain network, a supply chain virtual network that can highly simulate the real structure and risk propagation mechanism is first established, providing new ideas for reducing the risk of cascade failure and improving network robustness. A multi-level supply chain virtual network generation algorithm is proposed based on node degrees, competitive advantage coefficients and other factors. In the network evolution process, priority connection and priority exit mechanisms are used to simulate the entry and exit of enterprises, and cascade failure algorithms and three risk transfer strategies are used to reveal the micro mechanism of risk spread. The results show that when a core node fails, risks are easy to pass quickly and cause multi-node cascade failures; the remaining capacity allocation strategy is more conducive to improving the impact resistance of the supply chain network; the built virtual network is highly similar to the real network in terms of risk spread range and impact strength, and can accurately reflect the cascade proliferation process of node failures in the network. The research in this paper provides a new approach with practical value for structural optimization and collaborative prevention and control of new energy vehicle supply chain networks.关键词
供应链网络/级联失效/网络生成Key words
supply chain network/cascade failure/network generation引用本文复制引用
刘雯月,张笑笑,杨康.新能源汽车供应链仿真网络与级联失效研究[EB/OL].(2025-03-13)[2026-04-03].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/202503-105.学科分类
能源动力工业经济/计算技术、计算机技术
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