气候变化下喜旱莲子草在海南热带雨林国家公园的扩散风险研究

lternanthera philoxeroides, a globally invasive species, poses a significant threat to local ecosystemsdue to its rapid spread and adaptability to diverse environmental conditions. Hainan Tropical Rainforest NationalPark, a critical area for biodiversity conservation, is increasingly at risk from the spread of A. philoxeroides.Therefore, accurately mapping its distribution and conducting dynamic monitoring are essential for effectivemanagement. This study utilized field survey data and employed the Biomod2 package in the R programminglanguage to develop species distribution models, analyzing the spatial distribution of A. philoxeroides in thenational park under current and future climate scenarios, as well as identifying key environmental factorsinfluencing its habitat suitability. The results were as follows: (1) The suitable areas for A. philoxeroides in thenational park were categorized into low, medium, high, and very suitable zones. Under current conditions, the highly suitable area covered approximately 180.75 km, concentrated primarily in the Yinggeling, Diaoluoshan,and Limushan areas. (2) Among the various factors influencing habitat suitability, climatic variables were found tohave the most significant impact on the species distribution. Specifically, the mean annual temperature change(bio7), normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi), maximum temperature in the warmest month (bio5), andprecipitation in the warmest quarter (bio18) were identified as the key factors influencing habitat suitability. (3)The trends in the total habitat suitability area of A. philoxeroides under different future climate scenarios revealedtwo distinct patterns. In both scenarios, the centroid of suitable habitat shifted eastward. Under the high emissions,extreme climate intensification scenario (SSP585), the expansion of suitable habitat was more rapid compared tothe moderate sustainable development scenario (SSP126). In conclusion, the projected habitat of A. philoxeroidesunder current climate conditions is primarily located on the periphery of the national park. However, due to theexpected dramatic changes in global climate, the risk of its spread within the national park is significantlyheightened. Continuous monitoring and proactive management are crucial to prevent the large-scale invasion of A.philoxeroides and mitigate its ecological impacts.