Infectious Reactivation of Cytomegalovirus Explaining Age- and Sex-Specific Patterns of Seroprevalence
Infectious Reactivation of Cytomegalovirus Explaining Age- and Sex-Specific Patterns of Seroprevalence
Abstract Human cytomegalovirus is a herpes virus with poorly understood transmission dynamics. We here provide quantitative estimates of the transmissibility of primary infection, reactivation, and re-infection using age-and sex-specific antibody response data. The data are optimally described by three distributions of antibody measurements, i.e. uninfected, infected, and infected after reactivation/re-infection. Estimates of seroprevalence increase gradually with age, such that at 80 years 73% (95%CrI: 64%-78%) of females and 62% (95%CrI: 55%-68%) of males is infected, while 57% (95%CrI: 47%-67%) of females and 37% (95%CrI: 28%-46%) of males has experienced a reactivation or re-infection episode. Merging the statistical analyses with transmission models, we find that infectious reactivation is key to provide a good fit fit to the data. Estimated reactivation rates increase from low values in children to 2%-6% per year older women. The results advance a hypothesis in which adult-to-adult transmission after infectious reactivation is the main driver of infection.
Kassteele Jan van de、Korndewal Marjolein J.、der Klis Fiona van、Vossen Ann C.、Kretzschmar Mirjam、de Melker Hester E.、Baarle Debbie van、Boven Michiel van、van Dorp Christiaan H.
Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment,Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment,||Leiden University Medical Center, Department of Medical Microbiology,Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment,Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment,Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment,||Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht,Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment,Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment,Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment,Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment,||Theoretical Biology & Bioinformatics, Utrecht University,
医药卫生理论医学研究方法基础医学
Kassteele Jan van de,Korndewal Marjolein J.,der Klis Fiona van,Vossen Ann C.,Kretzschmar Mirjam,de Melker Hester E.,Baarle Debbie van,Boven Michiel van,van Dorp Christiaan H..Infectious Reactivation of Cytomegalovirus Explaining Age- and Sex-Specific Patterns of Seroprevalence[EB/OL].(2025-03-28)[2025-05-06].https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/102491.点此复制
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