Mixture Density Regression reveals frequent recent adaptation in the human genome

How much genome differences between species reflect neutral or adaptive evolution is a central question in evolutionary genomics. In humans and other mammals, the prevalence of adaptive versus neutral genomic evolution has proven particularly difficult to quantify. The difficulty notably stems from the highly heterogeneous organization of mammalian genomes at multiple levels (functional sequence density, recombination, etc.) that complicates the interpretation and distinction of adaptive vs. neutral evolution signals. Here, we introduce Mixture Density Regressions (MDRs) for the study of the determinants of recent adaptation in the human genome. MDRs provide a flexible regression model based on multiple Gaussian distributions. We use MDRs to model the association between recent selection signals and multiple genomic factors likely to affect positive selection, if the latter was common enough in the first place to generate these associations. We find that a MDR model with two Gaussian distributions provides an excellent fit to the genome-wide distribution of a common sweep summary statistic (iHS), with one of the two distributions likely enriched in positive selection. We further find several factors associated with recent adaptation, including the recombination rate, the density of regulatory elements in immune cells, GC-content, gene expression in immune cells, the density of mammal-wide conserved elements, and the distance to the nearest virus-interacting gene. These results support that strong positive selection was relatively common in recent human evolution and highlight MDRs as a powerful tool to make sense of signals of recent genomic adaptation.