COVID-HEART: Development and Validation of a Multi-Variable Model for Real-Time Prediction of Cardiovascular Complications in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19
COVID-HEART: Development and Validation of a Multi-Variable Model for Real-Time Prediction of Cardiovascular Complications in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19
Abstract Cardiovascular (CV) manifestations of COVID-19 infection carry significant morbidity and mortality. Current risk prediction for CV complications in COVID-19 is limited and existing approaches fail to account for the dynamic course of the disease. Here, we develop and validate the COVID-HEART predictor, a novel continuously-updating risk prediction technology to forecast CV complications in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The risk predictor is trained and tested with retrospective registry data from 2178 patients to predict two outcomes: cardiac arrest and imaging-confirmed thromboembolic events. In repeating model validation many times, we show that it predicts cardiac arrest with an average median early warning time of 18 hours (IQR: 13-20 hours) and an AUROC of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.91-0.92), and thromboembolic events with a median early warning time of 72 hours (IQR: 12-204 hours) and an AUROC of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.67-0.73). The COVID-HEART predictor is anticipated to provide tangible clinical decision support in triaging patients and optimizing resource utilization, with its clinical utility potentially extending well beyond COVID-19.
Shade Julie K.、Doshi Ashish N.、Sung Eric、Hays Allison G.、Trayanova Natalia A.、Popescu Dan M.、Gilotra Nisha A.、Aronis Konstantinos N.、Minhas Anum S.
Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street||Alliance for Cardiovascular Diagnostic and Treatment Innovation, Johns Hopkins UniversityAlliance for Cardiovascular Diagnostic and Treatment Innovation, Johns Hopkins University||Division of Pediatric Cardiology, Department of Pediatrics, Johns Hopkins University School of MedicineDepartment of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street||Alliance for Cardiovascular Diagnostic and Treatment Innovation, Johns Hopkins UniversityDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of MedicineDepartment of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street||Alliance for Cardiovascular Diagnostic and Treatment Innovation, Johns Hopkins University||Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of MedicineAlliance for Cardiovascular Diagnostic and Treatment Innovation, Johns Hopkins University||Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles StreetDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of MedicineAlliance for Cardiovascular Diagnostic and Treatment Innovation, Johns Hopkins University||Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of MedicineDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine
临床医学内科学基础医学
Shade Julie K.,Doshi Ashish N.,Sung Eric,Hays Allison G.,Trayanova Natalia A.,Popescu Dan M.,Gilotra Nisha A.,Aronis Konstantinos N.,Minhas Anum S..COVID-HEART: Development and Validation of a Multi-Variable Model for Real-Time Prediction of Cardiovascular Complications in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19[EB/OL].(2025-03-28)[2025-04-28].https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.03.21249182.点此复制
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