Infant Vaccination Does Not Predict Increased Infant Mortality Rate: Correcting Past Misinformation

Abstract Despite extensive scientific research supporting the safety and effectiveness of approved vaccines, debates about their use continue in the public sphere. A paper prominently circulated on social media concluded that countries requiring more infant vaccinations have higher infant mortality rates (IMR), which has serious public health implications. However, inappropriate data exclusion and other statistical flaws in that paper merit a closer examination of this correlation. We re-analyzed the original data used in Miller and Goldman’s study to investigate the relationship between vaccine doses and IMR. We show that the sub-sample of 30 countries used in the original paper was an unlikely random sample from the entire dataset, as the correlation coefficient of 0.49 reported in that study would only arise about 1 in 100,000 times from random sampling. If we investigate only countries with high or very high development, human development index explains the variability in IMR, and vaccine dose number does not. Next, we show IMR as a function of countries’ actual vaccination rates, rather than vaccination schedule, and show a strong negative correlation between vaccination rates and IMR. Finally, we analyze United States IMR data as a function of Hepatitis B vaccination rate to show an example of increased vaccination rates corresponding with reduced infant death over time. From our analyses, it is clear that vaccination does not predict higher IMR as previously reported.