Climate and land-use shape the spread of zoonotic yellow fever virus
Climate and land-use shape the spread of zoonotic yellow fever virus
Zoonotic viruses that originate in wildlife harm global human health and economic prosperity1. Understanding virus transmission at the human-animal-environment interface is a key component of pandemic risk-reduction2,3. Zoonotic disease emergence is highest in biodiverse, tropical forests undergoing intensive land-use change4,5. Phylodynamic analyses of virus genomes can powerfully test epidemiological hypotheses, but are rarely applied to viruses of animals inhabiting these habitats. Brazil’s densely-populated Atlantic Forest and Cerrado region experienced in 2016–2021 an explosive human outbreak of sylvatic yellow fever, caused by repeated virus spillover from wild neotropical primates6. Here we use yellow fever virus (YFV) genome sequences and epidemiological data from neotropical primates, humans, and mosquito vectors to identify the environmental, demographic, and climatic factors determining zoonotic virus spread. Using portable sequencing approaches we generated 498 YFV genomes, resulting in a well-sampled dataset of zoonotic virus genomes sampled from wild mammals. YFV dispersal velocity was slower at higher elevation, in colder regions, and further away from main roads. Virus lineage dispersal was more frequent through wetter areas, areas with high neotropical primate density and through landscapes covered by mosaic vegetation. Higher temperatures were associated with higher virus effective population sizes, and peaks of transmission in warmer, wetter seasons were associated with higher virus evolutionary rates. Our study demonstrates how zoonotic disease transmission is linked to land-use and climate, underscoring the need for One-Health approaches to reducing the rate of zoonotic spillover.
Dellicour Simon、Lemey Philippe、Suchard Marc A.、Saad Leila、Wint G.R. William、da Costa Antonio C.、Manuli Erika R.、Brady Oliver J.、Tatem Andrew J.、Mendez-Rico Jairo A.、Iani Felipe、Sabino Ester C.、de Bruycker-Nogueira Fernanda、Ang¨|lica Mares-Guia Maria、Zarebski Alexander E.、Hamlet Arran、Mureb Sallum Maria Anice、Spinola Roberta、Hill Sarah C.、Claro Ingra M.、Sequeira Patricia C.、Wu Chieh-Hsi、Giovanetti Marta、Li Sabrina L.、Chamberlain Heather R.、Pannell Oliver、Baele Guy、Pybus Oliver G.、Messina Jane P.、Faria Nuno R.、de Filippis Ana M. Bispo、Peixoto Pedro S.、Mucci Lu¨as Filipe、Aguiar Renato Santana、Kallas Esper G.、Xavier Joilson、Tejedor-Garavito Natalia、de Deus Juliana Telles、de Souza Santos Andreza Aruska、Tubaki Rosa Maria、Rebello Moreira Filipe Romero、Th¨|z¨| Julien、Abreu Andr¨|、Col¨?n-Gonz¨￠lez Felipe J.、Fabri Allison A.、Levin Anna S.、Cunha Mariana S.、de Jesus Jaqueline G.、de Menezes Regiane Maria Tironi、Adelino Talita
Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universit¨| Libre de Bruxelles||Department of Microbiology, Immunology & Transplantation, Rega InstituteDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology & Transplantation, Rega InstituteDavid Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los AngelesCentro de Vigilancia Epidemiol¨?gicaDepartment of Zoology, University of OxfordInstitute of Tropical Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de S?o PauloInstitute of Tropical Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de S?o Paulo||Department of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, School of Medicine, University of S?o PauloDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine||Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineWorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of SouthamptonHealth Emergencies Department, Pan American Health OrganizationFunda??o Ezequiel Dias (Funed)Institute of Tropical Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de S?o Paulo||Data for Science and Health, Wellcome TrustLaborat¨?rio de Flaviv¨arus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Funda??o Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz)Laborat¨?rio de Flaviv¨arus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Funda??o Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz)Department of Zoology, University of OxfordMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonFaculdade de Sa¨2de P¨2blica, Universidade de S?o PauloCentro de Vigilancia Epidemiol¨?gicaDepartment of Pathobiology and Population Sciences||Department of Zoology, University of OxfordInstitute of Tropical Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de S?o Paulo||MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonLaborat¨?rio de Flaviv¨arus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Funda??o Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz)Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton||Institute for Life Sciences, University of SouthamptonLaborat¨?rio de Flaviv¨arus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Funda??o Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz)School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford||School of Geography, University of NottinghamWorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of SouthamptonWorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of SouthamptonDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology & Transplantation, Rega InstituteDepartment of Pathobiology and Population Sciences||Department of Zoology, University of OxfordSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford||Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, University of OxfordInstitute of Tropical Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de S?o Paulo||MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonLaborat¨?rio de Flaviv¨arus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Funda??o Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz)Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of S?o PauloPasteur Institute, State Health Secretariat of Sao PauloDepartment of Genetics, Ecology and Evolution, Federal University of Minas Gerais||Instituto D?ˉOr de Pesquisa e Ensino (IDOR)Department of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, School of Medicine, University of S?o PauloUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisWorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of SouthamptonPasteur Institute, State Health Secretariat of Sao PauloLatin American Centre, Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, University of OxfordDepartment of Pathobiology and Population Sciences||Pasteur Institute, State Health Secretariat of Sao PauloMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London||Departamento de Gen¨|tica, Universidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford||Universit¨| Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, Saint-Gen¨¨s-ChampanelleCoordenadoria Geral de Laboratorios ¨C Minist¨|rio da SaudeDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine||Data for Science and Health, Wellcome TrustLaborat¨?rio de Flaviv¨arus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Funda??o Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz)Institute of Tropical Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de S?o Paulo||Department of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, School of Medicine, University of S?o PauloVector-Borne Diseases Laboratory, Adolf Lutz InstituteInstitute of Tropical Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de S?o PauloPasteur Institute, State Health Secretariat of Sao PauloFunda??o Ezequiel Dias (Funed)
医学研究方法环境科学理论生物科学现状、生物科学发展
Dellicour Simon,Lemey Philippe,Suchard Marc A.,Saad Leila,Wint G.R. William,da Costa Antonio C.,Manuli Erika R.,Brady Oliver J.,Tatem Andrew J.,Mendez-Rico Jairo A.,Iani Felipe,Sabino Ester C.,de Bruycker-Nogueira Fernanda,Ang¨|lica Mares-Guia Maria,Zarebski Alexander E.,Hamlet Arran,Mureb Sallum Maria Anice,Spinola Roberta,Hill Sarah C.,Claro Ingra M.,Sequeira Patricia C.,Wu Chieh-Hsi,Giovanetti Marta,Li Sabrina L.,Chamberlain Heather R.,Pannell Oliver,Baele Guy,Pybus Oliver G.,Messina Jane P.,Faria Nuno R.,de Filippis Ana M. Bispo,Peixoto Pedro S.,Mucci Lu¨as Filipe,Aguiar Renato Santana,Kallas Esper G.,Xavier Joilson,Tejedor-Garavito Natalia,de Deus Juliana Telles,de Souza Santos Andreza Aruska,Tubaki Rosa Maria,Rebello Moreira Filipe Romero,Th¨|z¨| Julien,Abreu Andr¨|,Col¨?n-Gonz¨￠lez Felipe J.,Fabri Allison A.,Levin Anna S.,Cunha Mariana S.,de Jesus Jaqueline G.,de Menezes Regiane Maria Tironi,Adelino Talita.Climate and land-use shape the spread of zoonotic yellow fever virus[EB/OL].(2025-03-28)[2025-06-12].https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.25.22278983.点此复制
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