基于InVEST-PLUS模型的黄河流域内蒙古段生态系统碳储量评价及预测

he carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems plays a crucial role in mitigating global warming. Assessing the impact of land use changes on carbon storage in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin can contribute to achieving dual carbon targets. This study applied the InVEST model to assess carbon storage in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin over the past 20 years. The PLUS model was used to predict land use patterns in 2040 under three different development scenarios. The study then coupled the InVEST-PLUS to predict the carbon storage for the next 20 years, exploring the response relationship between land use changes and carbon storage. The results indicated that from 2000 to 2020, grasslands were the major land use type and the most significant carbon reservoir. The increase in grassland area was the primary reason for the total rise in carbon storage at 4.08 107 t. Under the ecological protection scenario, it is most conducive to improving carbon storage in the basin by 2040, with a total increase of 4.50 107 t. Annual precipitation was the factor with the single highest explanatory power. As socioeconomic development progresses, its explanatory power on the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of carbon storage becomes more apparent. The explanatory power of two-factor interactions is generally much higher than that of single factors for these characteristics. This study aims to provide recommendations for regional land planning and to help China achieve its carbon neutrality goals better.