Using Novel, Agent-Based Periodic Mobility Model with Super Spreaders to Analyze Vaccination Strategies for COVID-19

Abstract BackgroundWith the innovation of vaccines to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, following an effective vaccination strategy is crucial in mitigating deaths and hospitalizations and offering the greatest protection to a community or locality within the early months of vaccine-availability, when resources may be scarce. By using a novel agent-based periodic mobility model that captures periodic movement, which attempts to model human movement patterns, super spreaders, and ICU hospitalizations, this study attempts to find the best strategy for vaccinating individuals to mitigate the damage of COVID-19. ResultsThis study found that a vaccination strategy that first vaccinates the elderly would be most effective at mitigating deaths and lowering the ICU hospitalization peak during the first two months of vaccine rollout. ConclusionFor communities that are early in their vaccine campaign or that have limited resources for vaccination, we recommend that they prioritize vaccinating the elderly who are more susceptible to COVID-19 first.