State-by-State prediction of likely COVID-19 scenarios in the United States and assessment of the role of testing and control measures
State-by-State prediction of likely COVID-19 scenarios in the United States and assessment of the role of testing and control measures
Abstract Due to the heterogeneity among the States in the US, predicting COVID-19 trends and quantitatively assessing the effects of government testing capability and control measures need to be done via a State-by-State approach. We develop a comprehensive model for COVID-19 incorporating time delays and population movements. With key parameter values determined by empirical data, the model enables the most likely epidemic scenarios to be predicted for each State, which are indicative of whether testing services and control measures are vigorous enough to contain the disease. We find that government control measures play a more important role than testing in suppressing the epidemic. The vast disparities in the epidemic trends among the States imply the need for long-term placement of control measures to fully contain COVID-19.
Li Yi-Lin、Han Li-Lei、Zeng Ying-Qi、Wu Da-Yu、Tang Ming、Liu Zonghua、Lai Ying-Cheng、Lin Zhao-Hua、Kang Jie、Xu Di、Zeng Lang、Long Yong-Shang、Zhai Zheng-Meng
School of Communication and Electronic Engineering, East China Normal UniversityState Key Laboratory of Precision Spectroscopy and School of Physics and Electronic Science, East China Normal UniversitySchool of Communication and Electronic Engineering, East China Normal UniversityState Key Laboratory of Precision Spectroscopy and School of Physics and Electronic Science, East China Normal UniversityState Key Laboratory of Precision Spectroscopy and School of Physics and Electronic Science, East China Normal University||Shanghai Key Laboratory of Multidimensional Information Processing, East China Normal UniversityState Key Laboratory of Precision Spectroscopy and School of Physics and Electronic Science, East China Normal UniversitySchool of Electrical, Computer and Energy Engineering, Arizona State UniversityState Key Laboratory of Precision Spectroscopy and School of Physics and Electronic Science, East China Normal UniversitySchool of Communication and Electronic Engineering, East China Normal UniversityJournalism School, Fudan UniversityState Key Laboratory of Precision Spectroscopy and School of Physics and Electronic Science, East China Normal UniversityState Key Laboratory of Precision Spectroscopy and School of Physics and Electronic Science, East China Normal UniversityState Key Laboratory of Precision Spectroscopy and School of Physics and Electronic Science, East China Normal University
预防医学医药卫生理论医学研究方法
Li Yi-Lin,Han Li-Lei,Zeng Ying-Qi,Wu Da-Yu,Tang Ming,Liu Zonghua,Lai Ying-Cheng,Lin Zhao-Hua,Kang Jie,Xu Di,Zeng Lang,Long Yong-Shang,Zhai Zheng-Meng.State-by-State prediction of likely COVID-19 scenarios in the United States and assessment of the role of testing and control measures[EB/OL].(2025-03-28)[2025-05-02].https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078774.点此复制
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