A Multi-State Birth-Death model for Bayesian inference of lineage-specific birth and death rates

Abstract Heterogeneous populations can lead to important differences in birth and death rates across a phylogeny Taking this heterogeneity into account is thus critical to obtain accurate estimates of the underlying population dynamics. We present a new multi-state birth-death model (MSBD) that can estimate lineage-specific birth and death rates. For species phylogenies, this corresponds to estimating lineage-dependent speciation and extinction rates. Contrary to existing models, we do not require a prior hypothesis on a trait driving the rate differences and we allow the same rates to be present in different parts of the phylogeny. Using simulated datasets, we show that the MSBD model can reliably infer the presence of multiple evolutionary regimes, their positions in the tree, and the birth and death rates associated with each. We also present a re-analysis of two empirical datasets and compare the results obtained by MSBD and by the existing software BAMM. The MSBD model is implemented as a package in the Bayesian inference software BEAST2, which allows joint inference of the phylogeny and the model parameters. Significance statementPhylogenetic trees can inform about the underlying speciation and extinction processes within a species clade. Many different factors, for instance environmental changes or morphological changes, can lead to differences in macroevolutionary dynamics within a clade. We present here a new multi-state birth-death (MSBD) model that can detect these differences and estimate both the position of changes in the tree and the associated macroevolutionary parameters. The MSBD model does not require a prior hypothesis on which trait is driving the changes in dynamics and is thus applicable to a wide range of datasets. It is implemented as an extension to the existing framework BEAST2.