Time-Varying COVID-19 Reproduction Number in the United States

Abstract The basic reproduction number is the average number of people to whom an infected person transmits the infection when virtually all individuals in a population are susceptible. We sought to calculate the current reproduction number for COVID-19 for each state in the United States. For the entire United States, the time-varying reproduction number declined from 4.02 to 1.51 between March 17 and April 1, 2020. We also found that the time-varying reproduction number for COVID-19 has declined in most states over the same two week period which suggests that social isolation measures may be having a beneficial effect.