Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm-animal monitoring
Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm-animal monitoring
Abstract Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short-term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. During the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we instrumentally observed the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct-Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan-Apr 2017). Relating 5304 (in 2016) and 12948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 ≤ M ≤ 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a stable, but not during their time on a pasture. We detect these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1-20hrs) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous instrumental monitoring of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre-seismic activity that could allow for short-term earthquake forecasting. One Sentence SummaryA collective of domestic animals repeatedly showed unusually high activity levels before earthquakes, with anticipation times (1-20h) negatively related to distance from epicenters (5-28km).
Mueller Uschi、Scocco Paola、Keim Daniel、Mai P. Martin、Fechteler Gerhard、Desinov Lev、Pohlmeier Winfried、Wikelski Martin、Belyaev Mikhail、Catorci Andrea
Department of Migration and ImmunoEcology, Max-Planck Institute of Ornithology||Department of Biology, University of Konstanz||Center for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour (CASCB), University of KonstanzSchool of Biosciences and Veterinary Medicine - University of CamerinoDepartment of Computer Science and Information Science, University of KonstanzDivision of Physical Science and Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)Department of Economics, University of Konstanz||Center for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour (CASCB), University of KonstanzRemote sensing laboratory, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of SciencesDepartment of Economics, University of Konstanz||Center for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour (CASCB), University of KonstanzDepartment of Migration and ImmunoEcology, Max-Planck Institute of Ornithology||Department of Biology, University of Konstanz||Center for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour (CASCB), University of KonstanzRSC Energia, Uragan Experiment Group, Deputy Head of the ISS Utilization CenterSchool of Biosciences and Veterinary Medicine - University of Camerino
地球物理学动物学
Mueller Uschi,Scocco Paola,Keim Daniel,Mai P. Martin,Fechteler Gerhard,Desinov Lev,Pohlmeier Winfried,Wikelski Martin,Belyaev Mikhail,Catorci Andrea.Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm-animal monitoring[EB/OL].(2025-03-28)[2025-07-16].https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.19.911313.点此复制
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