我国生态环境质量拐点综合研判

Since the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the CPC, with the strength of eco-environmental protection, the deterioration of eco-environment in China has been curbed to a certain extent, which has led to discussions among decision makers on when China will reach the turning point of eco-environment. The judgement of the turning point is directly related to the eco-environmental protection strategies towards Chinas two centenary goals. This study redefines the concept of eco-environmental turning point firstly, and then establishes an indicator system and an analysis framework to predict the time that turning point occurs. The results show that the turning point of eco-environmental quality based on routine monitoring indicators will occur around 2025, the turning point of eco-environmental quality based on public perception will come about 2035, and the turning point of eco-environmental quality considered some new factors such as emerging contaminants will achieve around 2050. To develop eco-environmental protection strategies towards Chinas two centenary goals, it not only needs to make good plans for pollution prevention and ecological protection focusing on the current serious eco-environmental problems, but also needs to make good preparations for protracted battles aiming at eco-environmental problems that are currently difficult to solve, and potential eco-environmental risk in the future. During this process, in addition to further promoting the reform of the ecological civilization system, it is also necessary to make full use of science and technology in solving the bottleneck and difficulties of Chinas eco-environmental problems.