State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States
State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States
Abstract As of 1st June 2020, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly modelled the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available death data within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework. For each state, we estimate the number of individuals that have been infected, the number of individuals that are currently infectious and the time-varying reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person). We used changes in mobility to capture the impact that non-pharmaceutical interventions and other behaviour changes have on the rate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Nationally, we estimated 3.7% [3.4%-4.0%] of the population had been infected by 1st June 2020, with wide variation between states, and approximately 0.01% of the population was infectious. We also demonstrated that good model forecasts of deaths for the next 3 weeks with low error and good coverage of our credible intervals.
Ghani Azra C.、Ratmann Oliver、Donnelly Christl A.、Laydon Daniel J.、Valka Fabian、Zhu Harrison、Milton Philip、Baguelin Marc、Cattarino Lorenzo、Cuomo-Dannenburg Gina、Eaton Jeffrey W.、Hinsley Wes、Jeffrey Benjamin、Lees John、Walters Caroline E.、Nedjati-Gilani Gemma、Mellan Thomas A.、Riley Steven、Flaxman Seth、Ish-Horowicz Jonathan、Vollmer Michaela A. C.、Filippi Sarah L.、Ferguson Neil M.、Whittles Lilith K.、Cucunuba Zulma、Boonyasiri Adhiratha、Xi Xiaoyue、van Elsland Sabine L.、Gaythorpe Katy A. M.、Okell Lucy、Coupland Helen、Dorigatti Ilaria、Walker Patrick、Green William、Knock Edward、Bradley Valerie C.、Watson Oliver J.、Hutchinson Michael、Eales Oliver D.、Parag Kris V.、Siveroni Igor、Thompson Hayley A.、Whittaker Charles、Gandy Axel、Brazeau Nick F.、Mishra Swapnil、Unwin H. Juliette T.、Nouvellet Pierre、Bhatt Samir、Monod M¨|lodie、FitzJohn Richard G.、Ainslie Kylie E. C.、Hawryluk Iwona
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial College||Department of Statistics, University of OxfordMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial College||Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial CollegeDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance, Imperial College LondonDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeDepartment of Statistics, University of OxfordDepartment of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Brown University||MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeDepartment of Statistics, University of OxfordMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial College||School of Life Sciences, University of SussexMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial CollegeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial College
医学研究方法预防医学医药卫生理论
Ghani Azra C.,Ratmann Oliver,Donnelly Christl A.,Laydon Daniel J.,Valka Fabian,Zhu Harrison,Milton Philip,Baguelin Marc,Cattarino Lorenzo,Cuomo-Dannenburg Gina,Eaton Jeffrey W.,Hinsley Wes,Jeffrey Benjamin,Lees John,Walters Caroline E.,Nedjati-Gilani Gemma,Mellan Thomas A.,Riley Steven,Flaxman Seth,Ish-Horowicz Jonathan,Vollmer Michaela A. C.,Filippi Sarah L.,Ferguson Neil M.,Whittles Lilith K.,Cucunuba Zulma,Boonyasiri Adhiratha,Xi Xiaoyue,van Elsland Sabine L.,Gaythorpe Katy A. M.,Okell Lucy,Coupland Helen,Dorigatti Ilaria,Walker Patrick,Green William,Knock Edward,Bradley Valerie C.,Watson Oliver J.,Hutchinson Michael,Eales Oliver D.,Parag Kris V.,Siveroni Igor,Thompson Hayley A.,Whittaker Charles,Gandy Axel,Brazeau Nick F.,Mishra Swapnil,Unwin H. Juliette T.,Nouvellet Pierre,Bhatt Samir,Monod M¨|lodie,FitzJohn Richard G.,Ainslie Kylie E. C.,Hawryluk Iwona.State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States[EB/OL].(2025-03-28)[2025-06-12].https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.13.20152355.点此复制
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