区域化工安全早期预警指标体系构建及其警级算法研究
当前区域化工安全监管中,主要关注设备的已知风险和经验数据,对未知风险的预警能力不足。为能超早期发现风险,本文通过深入分析预警与脆弱性关系,构建以脆弱性为预警对象的预警思想,给出其脆弱性数学表达。在分析区域化工安全和外在社会环境之间作用关系后,将社会环境的脆弱性作为预警对象,建立基于政策、市场及文化等宏观要素脆弱性的综合评价指标体系,并探索警级算法。在耗散结构理论指导下,创新性地定义了熵的脆弱性及其算法作为警级算法。本文以某一具体区域为例,验证了所构建指标体系的灵敏性与可信性,为区域化工安全监管提供了新的思路和方法。
In the current regional chemical safety supervision, the focus is primarily on the known risks of equipment and empirical data, with insufficient early warning capabilities for unknown risks. To enable the ultra-early detection of risks, this paper constructs a warning ideology that takes vulnerability as the warning object by deeply analyzing the relationship between early warning and vulnerability, and provides a mathematicResearch on the construction of early warning indicator system for regional chemical safety and the alert level algorithmal expression for vulnerability. After analyzing the interaction between regional chemical safety and the external social environment, the vulnerability of the social environment is taken as the warning object, a comprehensive evaluation index system based on the vulnerability of macro elements such as policy, market, and culture is established, and the early warning algorithm is explored. Under the guidance of the theory of dissipative structure, the entropy vulnerability and its algorithm are innovatively defined as the early warning algorithm. Taking a specific region as an example, this paper verifies the sensitivity and credibility of the constructed index system, providing new ideas and methods for regional chemical safety supervision.
陈凝、方叶祥、江蕾
南京工业大学经济与管理学院,南京 211816江苏省重点培育智库南京工业大学应急治理与政策研究院南京工业大学经济与管理学院, 南京 211816
安全科学
安全科学技术区域化工安全预警散结构理论脆弱性
safety science and engineeringregional chemical safety warningdissipative structure theoryvulnerability.
陈凝,方叶祥,江蕾.区域化工安全早期预警指标体系构建及其警级算法研究[EB/OL].(2025-05-09)[2025-05-12].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/202505-20.点此复制
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