Optimizing Flexible Complex Systems with Coupled and Co-Evolving Subsystems under Operational Uncertainties

The paper develops a novel design optimization framework and associated computational techniques for staged deployment optimization of complex systems under operational uncertainties. It proposes a local scenario discretization method that offers a computationally efficient approach to optimize staged co-deployment of multiple coupled subsystems by decoupling weak dynamic interaction among subsystems. The proposed method is applied to a case study and is demonstrated to provide an effective and scalable strategy to determine the optimal and flexible systems design under uncertainty. The developed optimization framework is expected to improve the staged deployment design of various complex engineering systems, such as water, energy, food, and other infrastructure systems.