气候变化对柴达木盆地植被绿度的影响及趋势预估

Exploring the quantitative pre assessment of the climate impact of vegetation greenness changes in the Qaidam Basin can help promote the integrated protection and systematic management of mountains, waters, forests, fields, lakes, grasses, sands, and gases. This article is based on MODIS NDVI data, meteorological data, and climate change prediction datasets. It monitors the changes in vegetation greenness with NDVI 0.3 in the Qaidam Basin from 2000 to 2023, analyzes the climate driving factors of vegetation with different greenness, and predicts the future trends of vegetation changes with different greenness. The results showed that in the past 24 years, vegetation types , , and in the Qaidam Basin accounted for 49.33%, 19.81%, and 30.86% of low green vegetation, respectively. Among them, the vegetation areas of Ssum, S, and S decreased significantly (P< 0.001); while the vegetation area of S increased significantly, indicating a clear improvement in vegetation quality; The cumulative effect of water and heat conditions on precipitation of low green vegetation for 2-3 years and temperature for 5 years is significantly (P<0.01) greater than that of the current year, indicating that a warm and humid climate promotes the healthy development of grasslands; Under the three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 in the future, the overall trend of low green vegetation in the Qaidam Basin is decreasing, and future climate conditions are favorable for vegetation restoration and expansion. The research results can provide scientific basis for the development of ecological environment protection and desertification control measures in the Qaidam Basin.