1990—2021年中国人群药物滥用障碍的疾病负担及2022—2046趋势预测

BackgroundDrug use disorders have become a major global public health challengethreatening people's lives and healthincreasing the disease burden and hindering economic development and social progress. As the burden of disease varies among different drugspreventing and controlling them has become a major concern for all sectors of society. ObjectiveTo analyse the trend in the disease burden of drug use disorders in China between 1990 and 2021. This includes calculating the age-standardised incidence and DALY rates of drug use disorders and their five subcategoriesand making predictions about the incidence and DALY rates from 2022 to 2046. These findings will provide a scientific basis for policy formulation and intervention implementation. MethodsWe used data from the Global Burden of Diseases 2021GBD 2021database to extract age-standardised incidence ratesdisability-adjusted life yearsDALYrates for drug use disorders and five subcategories from 1990 to 2021Opioid use disordersCannabis use disordersCocaine use disordersAmphetamine use disorders and Other drug use disorders. Joinpoint regression models were then used to analyse the age-standardised incidence rates and the annual and average annual percentage changes in DALY rates. Bayesian age-period-cohort prediction models were then used to predict trends in age-standardised incidence and DALY rates from 2022 to 2046. ResultsJoinpoint regression analysis revealed an overall downward trend in the age-standardised incidence and DALY rates of drug use disorders in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2021AAPC values of -0.76% and -2.75%respectivelyboth P<0.05.The age-standardised incidence and DALY rates of drug use disorders showed an overall downward trend for both males and femalesAAPC values of -0.69% and -2.50% for malesand -0.85% and -3.09% for femalesrespectivelyboth P<0.05. Of the five subcategories of drug use disorders nationwidethe age-standardised incidence and DALY rates of cannabis use disorders showed an overall increasing trendAAPC=0.66%0.71%respectivelyboth P<0.05. The age-standardised incidence and DALY rates of the remaining four subcategories showed an overall decreasing trendopioidsAAPC=-1.97%-3.41%amphetaminesAAPC=-1.50%-1.66%cocaineAAPC=-0.66%-2.12%otherAAPC=-0.64%-3.83%all P<0.05. The BAPC model predicted that from 2022 to 2046the incidence and DALY rates of drug use disorders in both male and female populations in China would increase. The projected increase in incidence was approximately 50.80% for males and 24.27% for femaleswith a higher increase in males than females. The projected increase in DALY rates was approximately 48.34% for males and 41.46% for femaleswith a higher increase in males than females. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021the disease burden of drug use disorders in China decreasedwith males bearing a higher burden than females. With the exception of cannabis use disordersthe remaining four subcategories of drug use disorders showed an overall downward trend. The burden due to opioid use disorders was the most severe. Howeverit is projected thatfrom 2022 to 2046age-standardised incidence and DALY rates will increase.