贸易政策不确定性、高标准自贸协定与全球价值链参与深度
Trade policy uncertainty,high-standard free trade agreements, and the depth of participation in global value chains
王徐 1陈钧浩1
作者信息
- 1. 宁波大学商学院，浙江宁波，315211
- 折叠
摘要
全球价值链分工体系下，贸易政策不确定性的上升对跨境生产协作的稳定性构成显著冲击。本文基于2007-2021年多国多行业面板数据，构建"平均生产长度-上下游位置-出口复杂度"三维综合指标度量全球价值链参与深度，系统考察贸易政策不确定性对其的影响，并探究贸易成本的中介机制与高标准自由贸易协定数量比重的调节效应。实证结果表明：贸易政策不确定性上升显著抑制全球价值链参与深度，贸易成本在贸易政策不确定性对全球价值链参与深度抑制效应中发挥部分中介作用，而高标准自由贸易协定占比在其中具有正向调节效应，且该效应存在严格门槛特征。研究结论在收入水平、金融危机时段及不同贸易端口等情境下呈现显著异质性。上述结果为各国通过降低贸易成本、优化自由贸易协定质量布局以应对政策不确定性、提升全球价值链参与质量提供了实证依据与政策启示。
Abstract
Under the global value chain division system, the rise in trade policy uncertainty significantly impacts the stability of cross-border production collaboration. Based on multi-country and multi-industry panel data from 2007 to 2021,this paper constructs a three-dimensional comprehensive index covering average production length, upstream and downstream location, and export complexity, so as to measure the depth of participation in the global value chain more comprehensively and accurately, systematically examines the impact of trade policy uncertainty on it, and explores the mediating role of trade costs and the moderating effect of the proportion of high-standard free trade agreements. Empirical results show that: an increase in trade policy uncertainty significantly inhibits the depth of global value chain participation; trade costs play a partial mediating role in the inhibitory effect of trade policy uncertainty on global value chain participation depth, while the proportion of high-standard free trade agreements has a positive moderating effect, and this effect has a strict threshold characteristic. The research conclusions show significant heterogeneity under different contexts such as income levels, financial crisis periods, and different trade endpoints. The above results provide empirical evidence and policy implications for countries to cope with policy uncertainty and enhance the quality of global value chain participation by reducing trade costs and optimizing the quality layout of free trade agreements.关键词
国际贸易学贸易政策不确定性/全球价值链参与深度/贸易成本/高标准自由贸易协定/调节效应Key words
International trade/trade policy uncertainty/depth of participation in global value chains/trade costs/high-standard free trade agreements引用本文复制引用
王徐,陈钧浩.贸易政策不确定性、高标准自贸协定与全球价值链参与深度[EB/OL].(2026-04-29)[2026-04-30].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/202604-210.学科分类
世界经济/贸易经济
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