Logistic产量递减模型特征分析与判别研究及在四川气藏的应用
Feature analysis and discrimination of Logistic production decline model and its application in Sichuan gas reservoirs
邓伟飞 1詹泽东1
作者信息
- 1. 中国石油化工股份有限公司西南油气分公司, 成都 610041
- 折叠
摘要
为了明确Logistic产量递减模型特征，探索模型参数的简易化求解方法，为该模型的推广应用提供技术支撑。通过理论推导与矿场数据综合分析，结果表明：1）Logistic产量递减模型具有"有界性、条件极值性、模式识别性"三大特点，利用新建立的模式判别方程诊断表明，四川地区页岩气、致密气等非常规气以及常规气均可采用该模型开展产量递减分析。2）利用新建立的模式判别方程可采用"二次线性回归"法求解模型参数，新方法更具简便性和有效性。3）利用Logistic产量递减模型可有效地对气藏开展产量预测、可采储量评价与经济可采储量评价，进而为Logistic产量递减模型在国内推广应用奠定了理论基础。
Abstract
Conduct research on the characteristics of the Logistic production decline model, explore simplified methods for solving model parameters, and provide technical support for the promotion and application of this model. Through theoretical derivation and comprehensive analysis of field data, the results indicate: (1) The Logistic production decline model features three major characteristics-"boundedness, conditional maximum, and pattern recognition." Diagnostic analysis using the newly established pattern discrimination equation shows that unconventional gases such as shale gas and tight gas, as well as conventional gas, in the Sichuan region can all adopt this model for production decline analysis. (2) The newly established pattern discrimination equation enables the use of the "quadratic linear regression" method to solve model parameters, offering greater simplicity and effectiveness. (3) The Logistic production decline model can effectively facilitate production forecasting, recoverable reserves evaluation, and economically recoverable reserves evaluation for gas reservoirs, thereby laying a theoretical foundation for the domestic promotion and application of the Logistic production decline model.关键词
Logistic/产量递减模型/模式识别/产量预测/储量评价Key words
Logistic/Production decline model/Pattern recognition/Production forecast/Reserve evaluation引用本文复制引用
邓伟飞,詹泽东.Logistic产量递减模型特征分析与判别研究及在四川气藏的应用[EB/OL].(2026-05-14)[2026-05-16].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/202605-50.学科分类
油气田开发
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