理解时间与变化：质性纵向研究的理论、方法及前瞻
Understanding time and change: Theory, method and future direction for qualitative longitudinal research
王广新 1熊艳 1秦俪轩 1尚佳一 1袁晨曦 1索欣怡 1刘佳怡1
作者信息
摘要
质性纵向研究（Qualitative Longitudinal Research, QLR）通过对同一组参与者的历时性追踪，将“时间”与“变化”从静态背景提升为动态分析的核心焦点，从而系统揭示个体在生命历程、心理认知与社会实践中的演变过程。然而，如何将“时间与变化”有效转化为可设计、可收集、可分析、可评估的研究过程仍有待系统回应。围绕这一问题，本文系统梳理了QLR的理论、方法和技术，指出其通过前瞻性追踪设计，重复深度访谈与参与式观察等数据收集手段，结合三链分析、轨迹分析等数据分析技术，旨在揭示个体意义随时间重构的过程，刻画变化的非线性轨迹与关键转折点。当前，QLR仍面临样本流失、数据管理困难等挑战；未来可整合数字痕迹挖掘与纵向混合设计，构建更具解释力的分析框架。QLR为理解心理适应、危机干预及生命历程等动态过程，提供了兼具深度与情境敏感性的研究路径。
Abstract
Qualitative longitudinal research (QLR) moves time and change from a static backdrop to the central focus of dynamic analysis. By tracking the same group of participants over time, QLR systematically examines how individuals evolve across the life course, psychological cognition, and social practice. However, the question of how to effectively translate time and change into a research process that is designable, collectable, analyzable, and evaluable has yet to be systematically addressed. To fill this gap, this paper provides a systematic review of the theories, methods, and techniques underpinning QLR. It highlights how QLR employs data collection methodssuch as prospective tracking, repeated in-depth interviews, and participant observationin conjunction with analytical techniques including Three-strand analysis and trajectory analysis. These approaches aim to reveal the process by which individual meanings are reconstructed over time and to map non-linear trajectories of change and their key turning points. Currently, QLR still faces challenges such as sample attrition and difficulties in data management. Future developments may integrate digital trace mining and mixed-methods longitudinal designs to construct a more explanatory framework for analyzing change. QLR thus offers a research pathway that combines depth with situational sensitivity for understanding dynamic processes such as psychological adaptation, crisis intervention, and the life course.关键词
质性纵向研究/时间性/变化机制Key words
qualitative longitudinal research/temporal dimension/mechanisms of change引用本文复制引用
王广新,熊艳,秦俪轩,尚佳一,袁晨曦,索欣怡,刘佳怡.理解时间与变化：质性纵向研究的理论、方法及前瞻[EB/OL].(2026-06-29)[2026-07-02].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202606.00297.学科分类
科学、科学研究
