曹进军 1王鹏全 2王辉 3侯慧敏 4殷雪梅 1杨宏伟1
作者信息
- 1. 甘肃省水利厅石羊河流域水资源利用中心，甘肃 武威 733000
- 2. 青海民族大学土木与交通工程学院，青海 西宁 810007
- 3. 兰州理工大学能源与动力工程学院，甘肃 兰州 730050;吐鲁番市高昌区发展和改革委员会，新疆 吐鲁番 838001
- 4. 兰州理工大学能源与动力工程学院，甘肃 兰州 730050
- 折叠
摘要
构建未来不同情景土地利用变化下生态安全格局，为流域尺度生态经济可持续发展的规划和决策提供支持。利用FLUS模型模拟石羊河流域2035年土地利用格局，涵盖自然发展、耕地保护与生态保护三种情景，采用InVEST模型量化产水量、土壤保持和碳储量服务功能，应用“绿额分配”经验方法计算粮食生产服务功能，并基于层次分析法建立综合生态系统服务指数（CES），利用形态学空间格局分析模型（MSPA）及电路理论构建石羊河流域生态安全格局。石羊河流域2020年综合生态系统服务指数CES均值为0.2362，自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护情景下CES 均值分别达 0.2402、0.2415、0.2435，流域生态系统服务总体水平实现提升；2020 年现状年流域生态源地总面积7218.3 km2，现状和未来三种情景下生态廊道数量依次为55条、49条、52条、53条，基于生态源地及廊道空间分布规律构建石羊河流域“一带、三区、多点”总体生态安全格局，同步制定生态系统适应性管理与保护策略。研究成果可为石羊河流域生态空间的管控与优化提供科学参考。
Abstract
This study aims to construct ecological security patterns under different future land-use change scenarios, thereby providing scientific support for sustainable eco- economic development planning at the watershed scale. The FLUS model was used to simulate land use patterns in the Shiyang River Basin for the year 2035 under three scenarios: natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection. The InVEST model was used to quantify three key ecosystem services (water yield, soil retention, and carbon storage) while the Green Quota Allocationmethod was applied to calculate food production. A comprehensive ecosystem service index (CES) was then constructed based on the analytic hierarchy process. Finally, the Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis model and circuit theory were integrated to construct the ecological security pattern. The results show the CES value in the Shiyang River Basin for 2020 was 0.2362. Under the natural development scenario, the mean CES value is projected to be 0.2402, whereas under the cultivated land protection scenario it is 0.2415, and under the ecological protection scenario it reaches 0.2435. By 2035, the overall level of ecosystem services is expected to improve across all scenarios. The total area of ecological source areas in the Shiyang River Basin for 2020 was 7218.3 km, and the numbers of ecological corridors under the four scenarios were 55, 49, 52, and 53 for the 2020 baseline year, cropland protection scenario, ecological protection scenario, and natural development scenario respectively. The overall ecological security pattern of the Shiyang River Basin, characterized by one belt, three zones, and multiple points. Adaptive management and protection strategies for the ecosystem were constructed. The research results can provide a reference for the management and optimization of the ecological space in the Shiyang River Basin.关键词
土地利用变化/生态安全格局/InVEST模型/FLUS模型/石羊河流域Key words
land use/cover change/ecological security pattern/InVEST model/FLUS model/Shiyang RiverBasin引用本文复制引用
曹进军,王鹏全,王辉,侯慧敏,殷雪梅,杨宏伟.基于LUCC的石羊河流域生态安全格局多情景分析[EB/OL].(2026-07-23)[2026-07-28].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202607.00194.学科分类
环境科学理论/环境管理/水利调查、水利规划
