张子扬 1赵勇 2姚俊强 3李晓萌 4马丽云 4陈静4
作者信息
- 1. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002;成都信息工程大学大气科学学院，复杂地形区域气候变化与资源利用四川省重点实验室，成都平原城市气象与环境四川省野外科学观测研究站，气象灾害预测预警四川省工程研究中心，四川 成都 610225
- 2. 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院，复杂地形区域气候变化与资源利用四川省重点实验室，成都平原城市气象与环境四川省野外科学观测研究站，气象灾害预测预警四川省工程研究中心，四川 成都 610225
- 3. 中国气象局阿克达拉大气本底野外科学试验基地，新疆 阿勒泰 836500。;中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
- 4. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
- 折叠
摘要
土壤湿度是陆面过程的关键因子，通过其显著的“记忆效应”可以持续影响后续季节的降水变化，而欧亚大陆春季土壤湿度对中亚夏季降水影响的研究还十分有限。基于1961—2020年CRU月尺度降水、CPC月尺度土壤湿度，以及ERA5月平均环流场的再分析资料，分析欧亚大陆春季土壤湿度与中亚夏季降水的联系及其影响过程。结果表明：欧亚大陆春季土壤湿度总体呈现西部和北部高、东南部低的分布特征，东欧平原为主要高湿中心，且在过去60a呈显著增湿趋势。通过奇异值分解（SingularValueDecomposition，SVD）分析发现，欧亚大陆春季土壤湿度异常与中亚南部夏季降水之间存在显著正相关关系，当东欧平原土壤湿度偏高时，中亚南部降水显著增多，其相关关系独立于ENSO信号。春季土壤湿度正异常可以通过调制中亚副热带西风急流位置，增强高空辐散和中低空层辐合，促进水汽输送和汇聚，从而形成有利于中亚南部夏季降水发生的环流配置。研究成果揭示了欧亚大陆春季土壤湿度对中亚夏季降水的非局地影响，为中亚夏季降水预测提供了科学依据。
Abstract
Soil moisture is a key factor in land surface processes and can persistently influence subsequent seasonal precipitation variations through its pronounced memory effect. However, research on the impact of Eurasian spring soil moisture on summer precipitation over Central Asia remains limited. This study analyzes the relationship and influencing processes linking Eurasian spring soil moisture to summer precipitation over Central Asia using CRU and CPC monthly precipitation and soil moisture data, respectively; and reanalyzed ERA5 data of monthly mean atmospheric circulation from 1961 to 2020. Results show that Eurasian spring soil moisture is generally higher in the west and north and lower in the southeast, with the East European Plain as the main wet center that has undergone a significant wetting trend over the past 60 years. Singular Value Decomposition analysis reveals a significant positive correlation between Eurasian spring soil moisture anomalies and summer precipitation over southern Central Asia. When spring soil moisture is higher over the East European Plain, summer precipitation increases significantly over southern Central Asia, and this relationship is independent of the ENSO signal. Positive spring soil moisture anomalies can modulate the position of the subtropical westerly jet over Central Asia, enhance upper-level divergence and mid-to-lower-level convergence, and promote water vapor transport and convergence, thereby creating a circulation pattern favorable for increased summer precipitation over southern Central Asia. These findings reveal the non-local influence of Eurasian spring soil moisture on summer precipitation over Central Asia and provide a scientific basis for the prediction of summer precipitation in the region.关键词
欧亚大陆/土壤湿度/中亚/夏季降水/大气环流Key words
Eurasian continent/soil moisture/Central Asia/summer precipitation/atmospheric circulation引用本文复制引用
张子扬,赵勇,姚俊强,李晓萌,马丽云,陈静.欧亚大陆春季土壤湿度对中亚夏季降水的影响[EB/OL].(2026-07-23)[2026-07-29].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202607.00192.学科分类
大气科学（气象学）
