黄泽宏 1曾妍妍 1周金龙 1段秀蓉 2谭兰2
作者信息
- 1. 新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052;新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052;新疆水文水资源工程技术研究中心，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052
- 2. 新疆巴音郭楞蒙古自治州博斯腾湖科学研究所，新疆 库尔勒 841000
- 折叠
摘要
为探究自然与人为因素对地表水质的交互驱动机制，本研究以博斯腾湖及出入湖河流为对象，运用内梅罗指数法评价水质，结合灰色关联分析、空间自相关与最优参数地理探测器模型，识别水质指标的关联特征、空间聚类及因子交互作用。结果表明：（1）孔雀河源头为Ⅱ类水质，其余河流均为Ⅰ类，湖水以Ⅱ类为主（59.3%），河流水质整体优于湖内。（2）湖水TDS均值（819.49 mg·L-1）显著高于河流，且与河流输送关联较弱。（3）CODMn、F-、pH和TDS呈现显著空间聚集特征。（4）年降水量（自然因子）是主要驱动要素，距主要道路距离（人为因子）次之，自然因子整体影响更强；任意两因子交互均呈双因子增强效应，解释力高于单因子。研究揭示了自然-人为因子对干旱区湖泊水质协同作用的复杂机制，凸显气候与人类活动交织影响下河湖系统的非线性响应，为西北干旱区湖泊-流域可持续管理提供科学依据。
Abstract
To explore the interactive driving mechanism of natural and human factors on surface water quality,this study takes Bosten Lake and its inflow and outflow rivers as the object, uses the Nemerow index method toevaluate water quality, and combines grey correlation analysis, spatial autocorrelation, and optimal parameter geographic detector model to identify the correlation characteristics, spatial clustering, and factor interaction of waterquality indicators. The results show that: (1) The source of the Kongque River is Class II water quality, and therest of the rivers are Class I. The lake water is mainly Class II (59.3 %), and the water quality of the river is betterthan that of the lake. (2) The average TDS of lake water (819.49 mgL-1) was significantly higher than that of rivers, and the correlation with river transport was weak. (3) CODMn, F-, pH, and TDS showed significant spatial aggregation characteristics. (4) Annual precipitation (natural factor) is the main driving factor, followed by the distance from the main road (human factor), and the overall influence of natural factors is stronger. The interactionof any two factors showed a two- factor enhancement effect, and the explanatory power was higher than that ofthe single factor. This study reveals the complex mechanism of the synergistic effect of natural-anthropogenic factors on lake water quality in arid areas, highlights the nonlinear response of river-lake system under the influenceof climate and human activities, and provides a scientific basis for the sustainable management of lake-watershedin arid areas of Northwest China.关键词
灰色关联/空间自相关/最优参数地理探测器（OPGD）/驱动机制/博斯腾湖Key words
grey correlation/spatial autocorrelation/optimal parameter geographical detector (OPGD)/drivingmechanism/Bosten Lake引用本文复制引用
黄泽宏,曾妍妍,周金龙,段秀蓉,谭兰.博斯腾湖水质空间分异的自然-人为驱动机制[EB/OL].(2026-07-23)[2026-07-29].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202607.00190.学科分类
环境污染、环境污染防治
