生育意愿的群体效应及其心理机制
Group Effects on Fertility Intentions and Its Psychological Mechanism
龙晓 1王兵2
作者信息
- 1. 西北农林科技大学人文社会发展学院;西北农林科技大学马克思主义学院
- 2. 西北农林科技大学人文社会发展学院
- 折叠
摘要
本文基于中国综合社会调查数据，系统考察未生育个体生育意愿的群体效应。研究发现：处于高生育水平社区的育龄个体，其理想子女数更多，不生育偏好更低，意愿生育二孩的倾向也越高。该效应在女性、高学历以及40岁以上个体，尤其是高学历女性中并不显著。Bootstrap中介分析表明，社区生育水平通过改变生育价值认同和生育难度感知间接影响生育意愿。研究揭示了生育意愿群体效应的边界条件与心理路径，为优化生育支持政策提供了实证依据。
Abstract
Against the backdrop of sustained global fertility decline, raising fertility intentions among people of reproductive age has become a central public policy concern. Existing research has largely examined their determinants at the macro-structural and individual levels, while meso-level explanations from a social network perspective remain underdeveloped. Yet fertility decision-making is socially embedded and shaped by surrounding others within social networks, giving rise to group effects in childbearing. Drawing on neighborhood social networks, this study incorporates community-level fertility into the analysis of individual fertility intentions and systematically examines the existence, heterogeneity, and mediating pathways of such group effects. It thereby extends fertility-intention research from a social network perspective and provides evidence for improving fertility support policies.Using data from the 2021 Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS), the study focuses on childless individuals of reproductive age. Multiple linear regression and logistic regression models estimate the effects of community-level fertility on fertility intentions. Subgroup regressions examine heterogeneity by gender, educational attainment, and age, together with a gender-by-education cross-classified subgroup analysis. A bias-corrected bootstrap mediation analysis tests the psychological pathways of group effect, with endorsement of childbearing values and perceived barriers to childbearing as mediators.The results reveal significant group effects on fertility intentions. Individuals living in communities with higher fertility levels report a larger ideal number of children, a lower likelihood of preferring childlessness, and a stronger intention to have a second child. These findings remain robust after an instrumental variables approach is used to mitigate potential endogeneity bias. The effects also have clear boundary conditions. Community-level fertility significantly influences men but not women, individuals with lower but not higher educational attainment, and those aged 1839 but not those aged 4049. The gender-by-education analysis further shows that among highly educated women, the effect is statistically insignificant and even tends to be negative. The mediation analysis indicates that community-level fertility positively affects fertility intentions indirectly by strengthening endorsement of childbearing values and reducing perceived barriers to childbearing.This study identifies the boundary conditions and psychological pathways of group effects and makes three theoretical contributions. First, it introduces a social network perspective into fertility-intention research and shows that neighborhood norms have not disappeared but persist heterogeneously. Second, it verifies two psychological pathwaysendorsement of childbearing values and perceived barriers to childbearingaddressing the literatures emphasis on effect identification over mechanism analysis. Third, systematic heterogeneity analysis identifies gender-, education-, and age-specific boundary conditions, especially the absence of detectable group effects among highly educated women, helping explain the structural constraints they face in childbearing.These findings have important policy implications. Group effects are substantially suppressed among women, particularly highly educated women, who bear greater physiological costs, career opportunity costs, and day-to-day caregiving burdens. Fertility support therefore cannot rely solely on fostering a supportive social climate or collective mobilization. Policies should instead address the practical constraints faced by women, who bear the primary costs of childbearing. They should also promote gender equality within the household, establish incentives for paternal involvement in childcare, and facilitate the redistribution of caregiving responsibilities within families. These measures may constitute a key policy leverage point for supporting childbearing.关键词
生育意愿/群体效应/中介作用/异质性分析Key words
fertility intentions/group effects/indirect effect/heterogeneity引用本文复制引用
龙晓,王兵.生育意愿的群体效应及其心理机制[EB/OL].(2026-08-10)[2026-08-22].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202608.00006.学科分类
信息传播、知识传播/科学、科学研究
