广告路径依赖锁定效应的代际分化与解锁策略“高投入—高回避”困境如何破解？
Intergenerational Differentiation of the Lock-in Effect of Advertising Path Dependence and Unlocking Strategies: How to Crack the Dilemma of "High Investment - High Avoidance"?
摘要
2025年中国广告业务收入突破2万亿元，同比增长32.6%，2026年上半年互联网广告占发布收入86%，但用户广告回避率持续攀升，形成“高投入—高回避”的行业困境。本文以路径依赖理论为分析框架，基于730份全国调研问卷数据，引入“锁定强度”（回避得分减互动得分）构念，系统考察用户广告防御的路径依赖特征。研究发现：（1）代际锁定强度存在显著分化，Z世代（0.54）与千禧一代（0.48）的防御程度远高于X世代（0.24），数字原住民的广告回避路径固化特征更明显，10后（0.28）则呈现路径松动的临界转变信号；（2）锁定强度对广告转化全环节具有显著负向影响（r=-0.15~-0.22，均p<0.001），锁定强度在控制人口统计变量后仍具有独立预测力（OR=0.863，p=0.044），深锁定用户转化率比浅锁定用户低14.3个百分点；（3）存在“频率感知悖论”，即认为“广告偏少”的用户锁定强度反而最高（0.73），为路径依赖的自我强化机制提供了直接行为证据。上述发现表明，“高投入—高回避”困境的核心根源是用户侧广告防御的路径依赖锁定，破解这一困境的核心思路需从“盲目加大投放强度”转向“差异化解锁路径”。
Abstract
In 2025, China's advertising business revenue exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32.6%, and Internet advertising accounted for 86% of the publishing revenue in the first half of 2026. However, the user advertising avoidance rate continues to rise, forming an industry dilemma of "high investment - high avoidance". Based on the path dependence theory and 730 national questionnaire data, this paper introduces the construct of "lock-in intensity" (avoidance score minus interaction score) to systematically examine the path dependence characteristics of users' advertising defense. The study finds that:(1) There is significant differentiation in intergenerational lock-in intensity. The defense level of Generation Z (0.54) and Millennials (0.48) is much higher than that of Generation X (0.24). Digital natives have more obvious characteristics of solidified advertising avoidance path, while the post-2010 generation (0.28) presents a critical transition signal of path loosening;(2) Lock-in intensity has a significant negative impact on the whole process of advertising conversion (r=-0.15~-0.22, all p<0.001), and still has independent predictive power after controlling demographic variables (OR=0.863, p=0.044). The conversion rate of deeply locked users is 14.3 percentage points lower than that of shallowly locked users; (3) There is a "frequency perception paradox", that is, users who think "advertising is less" have the highest lock-in intensity (0.73), which provides direct behavioral evidence for the self-reinforcing mechanism of path dependence. The above findings indicate that the core root of the "high investment - high avoidance" dilemma is the path-dependent lock-in of users' advertising defense. To solve this dilemma, we need to shift from "increasing investment intensity blindly" to "differentiated unlocking paths".关键词
路径依赖/广告回避/锁定强度/代际分化/自我强化Key words
path dependence/advertising avoidance/lock-in intensity/intergenerational differentiation/self-reinforcement引用本文复制引用
何鑫.广告路径依赖锁定效应的代际分化与解锁策略“高投入—高回避”困境如何破解？[EB/OL].(2026-08-26)[2026-08-29].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202608.00157.学科分类
信息产业经济/经济计划、经济管理
