摘要
在全球气候变暖背景下，以冰川融水为主的河流，洪水灾害风险日益凸显。科学评估洪水造成的经济损失对于加强灾害防范和提高区域洪灾韧性至关重要。本研究以干旱区内陆河——叶尔羌河流域为研究区，利用HiPIMS二维水动力模型，模拟5 a一遇和20 a一遇两种重现期下的洪水演进过程。整合土地利用、道路、房屋及作物分布等多源空间数据，本地化建筑物、道路和农作物三类承灾体的水深-损失率关系，建立叶尔羌河流域洪水灾害经济损失评估模型，实现不同重现期洪水灾害损失评估。结果表明：20 a一遇洪水造成的直接经济损失总额为2.42×108元；5 a一遇洪水造成的总损失为5.28×107元，约为前者的22%。流域内0~0.5 m浅水淹没区虽水深较浅，但在5 a一遇洪水情景下仍贡献约40.8%的总损失；在20 a一遇洪水情景下占比降至约10.5%，表明洪水强度增加后损失贡献由浅水区向中等水深区转移。研究结果可为叶尔羌河流域防洪规划与风险管理提供科学依据，并为类似内陆河流域提供参考。
Abstract
Against the backdrop of global climate warming, river basins dominated by glacial meltwater are facing increasingly severe flood risks. Scientifically assessing flood-induced economic losses is essential for improving disaster prevention and enhancing regional flood resilience. This study focuses on the Yarkant river basinan inland river in an arid regionand employs the two-dimensional High-Performance Integrated Hydrodynamic Modelling System to simulate flood inundation processes under 5-year and 20-year return periods. By integrating multi-source spatial data (including land use, roads, buildings, and crop distribution) and localizing the water depthloss rate relationships for three exposure types (buildings, roads, and crops), this study establishes an economic loss assessment model for flooding in the Yeerqiang river basin and evaluates losses under different return periods. The results show that the total direct economic loss caused by a 20-year flood is 2.42 108 yuan, whereas the total loss caused by a 5-year flood is 5.28 107 yuan (~22% of the 20-year flood loss). Although the shallow inundation area has relatively low water depths of 00.5 m, it still contributes approximately~40.8% of the total loss under the 5-year flood scenario. Under the 20-year flood scenario, this proportion decreases to approximately~10.5%, indicating that the loss contribution shifts from shallow to medium-depth areas as flood intensity increases. These findings provide scientific support for flood control planning and risk management in the Yeerqiang river basin and offer a reference for similar inland river basins.关键词
洪灾/经济损失/HiPIMS模型/损失率/叶尔羌河流域Key words
flood disaster/economic loss/HiPIMS/damage rate/Yarkant River Basin引用本文复制引用
邱月,何英,刘英,杜鹏,张志勇,刘振.叶尔羌河流域洪水灾害损失评估[EB/OL].(2026-09-11)[2026-09-13].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202609.00106.学科分类
灾害、灾害防治
