强泽楷 1李建华 1马海涛 侯嘉烨 何杰1
作者信息
- 1. 基于三维识别的中国西北气象干旱动态演变
- 折叠
摘要
中国西北地区是同纬度最干旱的区域之一，持续性干旱对水资源安全构成严重威胁，因此研究该地区气象干旱的动态演变对干旱的有效监测与管理至关重要。本研究基于标准化降水蒸散指数，构建三维干旱识别方法，分析了1980—2019年中国西北地区东、西部气象干旱事件，通过提取西北地区东、西部的干旱特征探讨干旱事件的动态演变过程及其区域差异。结果表明：（1） 近40 a来，西北地区东部干旱事件的面积、严重程度和历时均呈上升趋势，但最大干旱面积有所缩小，反映出西北地区东部干旱事件由大范围事件向小范围事件转变；东部干旱事件整体向北、向东移动，西北地区西部地区则相对稳定。（2） 西北地区干旱事件表现出显著的东西部季节性分异,，东部四季干旱程度相对均衡，春、秋季略占主导；西部则以春季干旱为核心，春季贡献了全年最严重的旱情。（3）干旱演变路径分异显著，东、西部干旱事件均以由西向东方向移动为主。本研究通过典型案例揭示了西北地区干旱的移动模式，阐明了干旱传播的特点与方向。上述发现对加强中国西部地区干旱早期预警和有效开展干旱防治具有重要价值。
Abstract
Northwest China, one of the driest regions at its latitude globally, faces severe water security threats due to persistent drought. Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of meteorological drought is critical for improving monitoring and management. Using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, this study constructed a three-dimensional identification model to detect drought events from 1980 to 2019, and analyzed their evolutionary characteristics and regional disparities. Results indicate that over the past 40 years, drought area, severity, and duration increased significantly in eastern Northwest China, while maximum extent decreased, suggesting a shift from large-scale contiguous droughts to smaller, high-intensity events. Drought centroids in the east migrated northward and eastward, whereas western centroids remained stable. Seasonal heterogeneity was evident: eastern drought severity was distributed across all seasons, with slightly higher intensity in spring and autumn; in the west, spring drought dominated overall severity. Drought migration paths showed clear regional differences, with westward movement prevailing in both areas, forming an alternating eastwest axial pattern. Analysis of representative events revealed distinct migration modes and clarified drought propagation characteristics. These findings offer a scientific basis for enhancing early warning systems and targeted drought prevention strategies in western China.关键词
三维干旱识别/气象干旱/干旱演变/干旱事件特征Key words
Three-dimensional drought identification/Meteorological drought/Drought migration/Drought event characteristics引用本文复制引用
强泽楷,李建华,马海涛,侯嘉烨,何杰.基于三维识别的中国西北气象干旱动态演变[EB/OL].(2026-09-11)[2026-09-13].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202609.00105.学科分类
大气科学（气象学）
