李杰 1吴静 1李纯斌 1韩国君1
作者信息
- 1. 近70 a甘肃寒潮事件时空特征及其与AO关系
- 折叠
摘要
利用甘肃省73个气象站1960—2025年的逐日最低温度数据及AO指数序列，采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall检验及Pearson相关分析等方法，分析甘肃省近70 a寒潮事件时空特征及其与北极涛动（Arctic Oscillation，AO）的关系。结果表明：（1） 寒潮事件呈“北多南少”分布，高发区位于河西走廊、甘南及陇东—陇中，且随着寒潮等级提升，高发区范围向高海拔区域收缩。（2） 超强寒潮在甘南高原及河西走廊西部减少，而寒潮与强寒潮则在陇东、陇中局部增加。（3） 寒潮事件在研究期内整体减少且等级越高趋势越显著，频次与日数呈“降—升—降”波动趋势；月尺度上，寒潮事件于冬半年高发，其中2月、4月减少明显。（4） 春季寒潮事件与AO呈显著负相关，响应强度自中部向西、南部递减，陇东—陇中为显著区；平均滞后时间约15 d且受地形调控。研究结果可为甘肃农业防寒管理及寒潮灾害防御提供科学依据。
Abstract
Based on daily minimum temperature data from 73 meteorological stations in Gansu Province and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index series for the period of 19602025, this study employed linear trend analysis, the MannKendall test, and Pearson correlation analysis to examine the spatiotemporal characteristics of cold wave events over the past nearly 70 years and their correlation with the AO. The results show that: (1) Spatially, cold wave events exhibited a distinct pattern of more frequent in the north, less frequent in the south. High-frequency areas were located in the Hexi Corridor, Gannan, and LongdongLongzhong region, and these areas contracted toward higher elevations as cold wave intensity increased. (2) While extreme cold wave events decreased significantly in the Gannan Plateau and western Hexi Corridor, the frequencies of cold waves and strong cold waves increased locally in parts of Longdong and Longzhong. (3) Temporally, cold wave events displayed an overall decreasing trend during the study period, with high-intensity events exhibiting pronounced declines. The frequency and duration of cold wave events followed a decreaseincreasedecrease pattern over time. On a monthly scale, cold waves occurred primarily during the cold season, with notable decreases in February and April. (4) Spring cold wave events were significantly negatively correlated with the AO. The strength of this correlation weakened from the central region toward the western and southern parts of Gansu, with the LongdongLongzhong area exhibiting the strongest statistically significant correlation. The mean response lag was approximately 15 days and was influenced by topographic conditions. These findings provide a scientific basis for improving agricultural frost protection and developing effective cold wave disaster prevention and mitigation strategies in Gansu Province.关键词
甘肃省/寒潮事件/时空特征/多时间尺度/北极涛动（AO）Key words
Gansu Province/cold wave events/spatiotemporal characteristics/multi-time scale/Arctic Oscillation (AO)引用本文复制引用
李杰,吴静,李纯斌,韩国君.近70 a甘肃寒潮事件时空特征及其与AO关系[EB/OL].(2026-09-11)[2026-09-14].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/202609.00098.学科分类
大气科学（气象学）
