Impact of Ghost Introgression on Coalescent-based Species Tree Inference and Estimation of Divergence Time

Abstract The species studied in any evolutionary investigation generally constitute a very small proportion of all the species currently existing or that have gone extinct. It is therefore likely that introgression, which is widespread across the tree of life, involves “ghosts,” i.e., unsampled, unknown, or extinct lineages. However, the impact of ghost introgression on estimations of species trees has been rarely studied and is thus poorly understood. In this study, we use mathematical analysis and simulations to examine the robustness of species tree methods based on a multispecies coalescent model under gene flow sourcing from an extant or ghost lineage. We found that very low levels of extant or ghost introgression can result in anomalous gene trees (AGTs) on three-taxon rooted trees if accompanied by strong incomplete lineage sorting (ILS). In contrast, even massive introgression, with more than half of the recipient genome descending from the donor lineage, may not necessarily lead to AGTs. In cases involving an ingroup lineage (defined as one that diverged no earlier than the most basal species under investigation) acting as the donor of introgression, the time of root divergence among the investigated species was either underestimated or remained unaffected, but for the cases of outgroup ghost lineages acting as donors, the divergence time was generally overestimated. Under many conditions of ingroup introgression, the stronger the ILS was, the higher was the accuracy of estimating the time of root divergence, although the topology of the species tree is more prone to be biased by the effect of introgression.