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基于Netlogo的房地产市场波动性及发展路径研究

Research on Volatility and Development Path of Real Estate Market Based on Netlogo

中文摘要英文摘要

这篇文章以计算实验金融为研究出发点,利用Netlogo程序包,即基于Agent对房地产市场进行仿真模拟,从宏观的角度探究刚性购房者和投机购房者的占比对房地产市场稳定性及发展路径的影响。结论表明:当刚性购房者比例约占60%时,房地产市场最稳定。随着两类参与者比例的变化,市场价格走势路径显著不同。具体而言,随着投机者比例逐步增加,市场价格走势均匀发散。当刚性购房者比例逐步增加,市场价格走势轻度发散,但会出现极端值情况,即刚性购房者而不是投机者更有可能会促使房价出现极端暴涨情况。

his paper adapts Netlogo and the agent-based computational finance, to explore the effects of the percentage of rigid home buyers and speculative home buyers on the stability and development path laws of the real estate market. The conclusion of this paper are as follows: the market is most stable when the rigid home buyers accounted for 60 percent; As the proportion of participants varies, the tendencies of market prices are significantly different. Specifically, when the scale of the speculators increases gradually, the tendency of market prices diverges unResearch on Volatility and Development Path of Real Estate Market Based on Netlogoiformly. In contrast, the market price trends slightly divergent as the percentage of rigid home buyers raises gradually, but the extreme value could be expressed in this case. So rigid home buyers may lead to the market price raises significantly.

蔡伯奇、任达、张彬煊

财政、金融计算技术、计算机技术

金融房地产市场计算实验金融刚性购房者投机购房者Netlogo

financeReal estate marketAgent-based computational financeRigid real estate-buyerSpeculative real estate-buyerNetlogo?????

蔡伯奇,任达,张彬煊.基于Netlogo的房地产市场波动性及发展路径研究[EB/OL].(2017-02-15)[2025-08-02].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201702-75.点此复制

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