河北省农村居民消费结构演变的系统分析

By examining per capita consumption and per capita net income of rural residents in using current statistic data in Hebei province over of ten years, the consumption structure evolution of rural development has been studied. Firstly, the application statistics description has characterized the demand structure of rural consumption in eight aspects, through out the correlation tests which the total consumption and total income of the long-term data have been calculated, and the Engel coefficient shows the general developing trend of the consumption structure. Secondly, applying ELES model to calculate the marginal propensity of consume, demand income elastic, which makes the effect economic factors of consumption structure evolution appear clearly. Lastly, by GRA quantitative the relationship between the consumption index and per capita net income, to establish GM (1,1) models, and by means of residual test to qualified the results, then we can forecast the rural future development trend of rural residents consumption structure and income level. Therefore, by means of the positive analysis the countermeasures and recommendations to develop the rural economy and consumer market in Hebei Province have been proposed at last.