堤防除险加固的风险决策分析

In this paper, the initial cost, reinforce cost and failure cost of the embankment are comprehensively considered to build a model and calculate the target risk degree. Then, the two-stage risk decision-making method is presented to study the reinforce strategy which can obtain the optimal risk degree and the minimum life cycle cost. Firstly, the two-stage risk decision-making method calculates the target risk degree based on the minimum life cycle cost; Secondly, an appropriate plan is decided according to the current condition. A detailed example is presented to illustrate the application of the two-stage risk decision-making method. The result indicates this method which is easy to carry out communicates the economic factor and the engineering factor.