基于最小二乘法的因子-层次分析预测中国新能源汽车发展趋势模型
Factor level analysis based on least square method predicts the development trend model of Chinese new energy vehicles
进入我国发展的新阶段，"双碳"目标成为我国未来发展的重点工作之一，而新能源汽车的出现对于实现"双碳"目标势必会有至关重要的作用。本文首先考虑了对于新能源汽车最为重要的影响因素--电池续航与充电。通过研究不同温度下电池的续航能力以及充电桩数量对于新能源汽车保有量的研究，结合我国的经济现状得到新能源汽车发展的影响因素（国内生产总值、人均可支配收入、新能源汽车专利数量、新能源汽车续航里程等），并根据2012-2023年新能源汽车保有量通过因子分析法、层次分析法和最小二乘法等得到新能源汽车的销量预测函数，并预测未来3年的我国新能源汽车的销量。
Entering a new stage of China\'s development, the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals" has become one of the key works of China\'s future development, and the appearance of new energy vehicles is bound to play a vital role in realizing the goal of "double carbon". This paper first considers the most important influencing factors for new energy vehicles - battery life and charging. By studying the battery life capacity at different temperatures and the effect of the number of charging piles on the ownership of new energy vehicles, and combining with the current economic situation of China, the influential factors of the development of new energy vehicles (GDP, per capita disposable income, the number of new energy vehicle patents, the driving range of new energy vehicles, etc.) are obtained. Based on the number of new energy vehicles from 2012 to 2023, the sales prediction function of new energy vehicles was obtained through factor analysis, analytic level analysis and least square method, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in the next three years was predicted.
李佳玥、阎炳嘉、王诗、曲梓铭、周嘉华
交通运输经济能源动力工业经济工业经济
"双碳"目标新能源汽车因子分析法层次分析法最小二乘法
carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goalsnew energy automobilefactor analysisanalytic hierarchy processleast aquare method
李佳玥,阎炳嘉,王诗,曲梓铭,周嘉华.基于最小二乘法的因子-层次分析预测中国新能源汽车发展趋势模型[EB/OL].(2024-05-20)[2025-08-02].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/202405-121.点此复制
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