“镰刀弯”地区种植业产值变化的结构分解与模拟预测

his paper exploits crop panel data at the provincial level (2001-2015) and uses the structural model to decompose crop output and forecast future changes over the 13th Five-Year Plan. Results suggest that increases in crop output in the 12th Five-Year Plan became slow with crop structure and regional structure problems. The national crop adjustment policy reflects these problems. Simulation suggests that the crop adjustment policy can increase the annual growth rate of output from 2.34% in the 12th Five-Year Plan to 5.92% in the 13th Five-Year Plan; contributions of the crop and regional structures would increase respectively from -1.2% and -13.7% in 2015 to 9.75% and 38.9% by 2020, changing fundamentally the disadvantages in crop production. However, the growth rate of productivity of corns, price volatilities and the extent the crop adjustment policy is implemented would affect the effectiveness of policy. The supply-side crop adjustment policy has to deal with the relationship between the government and markets. Together with improving crop and regional structures, the government would better improve productivity and stabilise crop prices, to realise the crop adjustment policy in the camber areas.