不确定性分析新安江模型采用蒙特卡罗分析工具箱

he consideration of uncertainty in the modeling of hydrological and environmental systems are of increasing importance, and are sometimes even demanded by decision makers. At the same time, the growing complexity of models to represent real-world systems makes it more and more difficult to understand model behavior, sensitivities and uncertainties. The Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox (MCAT) is a Matlab library of visual and numerical analysis tools for the evaluation of hydrological models. Input to the MCAT is the result of a Monte Carlo or population evolution based sampling of the parameter space of the model structure under investigation. The MCAT can be used off-line, i.e. it does not have to be connected to the evaluated model, and can thus be used for any model for which an appropriate sampling can be performed. The MCAT contains tools for the evaluation of performance, identifiability, sensitivity, predictive uncertainty and also allows for the testing of hypotheses with respect to the model structure used. And in this paper we used MACT to check and know which parameters is very sensitive in Xinanjiang model and six years of daily streamflow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration data from the Xingfeng Watershed located in south of china have been used