基于加权马尔科夫链模型的足球博彩投注策略分析

Soccer lottery, originating in Europe, enjoys a long history and various forms. Different from other lotteries, soccer lottery is more predictable, which leads to a higher rate of winning. Both technical analysis, which focus on match odds and other indicators, and fundamental analysis for information, are of great significance for improve betting performance. In this paper, match odds(SP) are used as variables in a refined Markov chain model, a frequently-used model in stochastic process, to predict results of soccer games in the future. Compared with previous literature, this paper provides a way to make predictions of soccer games, different from factor scoring, logistic regression and generalized linear model, etc.