西非三国埃博拉疫情防控效果的比较研究
Research on the Effect of Ebola Epidemic Prevention and Control Mearsures
2014年2月爆发于西非几内亚的埃博拉疫情，是近40年来一次最大规模的疫情爆发，对西非及其它地区造成了严重威胁。在世界卫生组织（World Health Organization，WHO）及其它医疗团体的帮助下，西非三国（几内亚、利比里亚、塞拉利昂）防控措施的有效实施对此次疫情的最终控制起到了关键性作用。本文在已有动力学模型的基础上，建立了新的SEgEqEggIgIqIggIgqR模型，着重分析此次埃博拉疫情最为严重的地区──西非三国防控措施的效果，并进行横向比较。经过分析得：利比里亚的防控措施强度最大，塞拉利昂次之，几内亚相对最小。通过模型得到的结果与WHO公布的感染数据拟合度较高，因此该模型较好地反映了实际情况，且评估结果也与实际相吻合。
he Ebola disease outbreak which begins in Guinea, West Africa from February 2014, is the largest disease for the latest 4 decades. And it poses a serious threat to the countries of West Africa and beyond. With the help of the World Health Organization (WHO) and other medical teams, the effective prevention and control measures in the three countries of West Africa (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone) play a key role. Based on the existing dynamic model, a new SEgEqEggIgIqIggIgqR model is established to analyze and compare the effect of prevention and control measures in the three countries. We draw a conclusion that the prevention and control measures in Liberia are best, followed by Sierra Leone, and that in Guinea is relatively the worst. As the result fits well with the data of WHO, the model reflects the actual and matches well with the real assessment.
杨静雅、温罗生
预防医学医学研究方法
埃博拉病毒防控措施传染病动力学模型数据拟合
Ebola virusPrevention and control measuresInfection dynamics modelData fitting
杨静雅,温罗生.西非三国埃博拉疫情防控效果的比较研究[EB/OL].(2016-03-25)[2025-08-16].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201603-376.点此复制
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