套利活动对香港离岸人民币存款市场的影响研究

Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, The current international monetary system dominated by dollars has exposed many deficiencies. Therefore, the Chinese government put forward the new strategic goal of international finance to promote the internationalization of RMB、 accelerate the reform of East Asian regional monetary cooperation and promote the reform of international monetary system. At this point the development of Hong Kong RMB offshore market has become an important part of RMB internationalization.?On the basis of studying the theory of arbitrage between offshore and onshore, According to the government's policy effect and the development of Hong Kong offshore RMB deposit market, this paper divides Hong Kong offshore RMB deposit market into the embryonic stage, the formation stage and the comprehensive development stage .In the empirical part, this paper chooses the data from the comprehensive development stage of Hong Kong offshore RMB deposit market, selects the onshore and offshore RMB deposit spreads, offshore RMB market expectations, offshore and onshore RMB spot exchange spreads and forward exchange rates spreads as explanatory variables. The RMB deposits in Hong Kong are divided into the RMB cross-border trade remittances and the other RMB deposits. Then this paper builds long-term equilibrium model and error correction model of Hong Kong RMB remittance and the other RMB deposits respectively, to analyze the impact of arbitrage on the offshore RMB deposit market under the cross-border trade and no real trade background, then analyzing the impulse response and variance decomposition respectively.????