太阳质子事件的中短期预报模型研究
太阳质子事件通量的预测对航天器的抗辐射加固设计和宇航员的出舱活动都具有非常重要的意义。针对1年以下的航天任务，我们利用经验统计的方法，确认了太阳活跃年和太阳平静年期间，1-365天不同时间段内太阳质子事件大于10MeV、大于30MeV和大于60MeV的质子事件积分通量符合对数正态分布，且通量对数的标准偏差 和期望值 随任务期时间的变化满足对数函数形式。以此为基础，我们构建了太阳质子通量的中短期预报模型。该模型能够针对太阳活跃年和太阳平静年，给出一定置信度下1-365天不同时间内大于10MeV、大于30MeV和大于60MeV的质子事件通量分布，从而为执行中短期航天任务提供太阳质子事件通量的预测，以规避不必要的风险。
Solar proton event forecast is very important to guarantee the security of spacecrafts and astronauts. According to the short to medium term space mission, the greater than 10 MeV, 30 MeV and 60 MeV solar proton event fluences are statistically analyzed. It is found that the probability distributions of solar proton event fluences basically satisfy the log-normal distributions, and their expectations and averages are logarithmic functions of the time periods. Based on these, a short to medium term forecast model of solar proton event fluences is built, which can forecast the greater than 10 MeV, 30 MeV and 60 MeV solar proton event fluences with some given confidence levels for 1 to 365 days. So, this model is very helpful to safely carry out the space mission with less than 1 year mission period.
师立勤、崔延美、刘四清
航天
太阳质子事件太阳质子通量中短期预报模型航天任务
师立勤,崔延美,刘四清.太阳质子事件的中短期预报模型研究[EB/OL].(2017-01-22)[2025-08-04].https://chinaxiv.org/abs/201701.00239.点此复制
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